利用AQI的绝缘子等值盐密动态累积规律研究  

A forecast model of ESDD for insulator based on dynamic parameters optimization

作　　者：熊宇[1] 阮羚[1] 黄俊杰[1] 陈孝明[1] 朱忠敏[2] 李晨[2] 张天浩[2] 陈江平[3] 

机构地区：[1]国网湖北省电力公司电力科学研究院,湖北武汉430077 [2]武汉大学测绘遥感信息工程国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430079 [3]武汉大学遥感信息工程学院,湖北武汉430079

出　　处：《武汉大学学报（工学版）》2016年第6期924-929,共6页Engineering Journal of Wuhan University

摘　　要：建立了污秽累积速率与空气质量指数(AQI)的关系,并在此基础上构建了污秽累积的动态预测模型,同时引入数据同化思想完成了参数优化估计.实验结果表明,该模型不仅能够很好地描述等值盐密的动态变化规律,也能对等值盐密进行更精准、更稳定的预测.考虑到AQI数据的易获取性和广泛的覆盖性,所提模型有望大幅降低区域污秽评估的成本.This paper establishes a relationship between the filthy cumulative rate and air quality index （AQI）, and puts forward a dynamic forecasting model; while introducing the ideology of data assimilation for optimizing parameters. The experimental results reveal that this model not only well reflects the dy- namic change regulation of insulator equivalent salt deposit density, but also makes more accurate and sta- ble prediction for equivalent salt deposit density. Considering the accessibility of AQI＇s data and its wide coverage, this model is expected to remarkably reduce the cost of regional contamination assessment.

关 键 词：污秽绝缘子 等值盐密 数据同化 AQI 模拟退火 

分 类 号：TM852[电气工程—高电压与绝缘技术]