塔里木河流域棉花种植气候资源适宜性主要影响因素分析  

Analysis of the Main Affecting Factors of the Climate Resources and Climate Suitability for Cotton Cultivation in Tarim River Basin

作　　者：贾佳[1] 陈建宁[2] 康顺光[1] JIA Jia CHEN Jian-ning KANG Shun-guang(College of Information Engineering, Tarim University, Alar 843300, China College of Economics and Management, Tarim University, Alar 843300, China)

机构地区：[1]塔里木大学信息工程学院,新疆阿拉尔843300 [2]塔里木大学经济与管理学院,新疆阿拉尔843300

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2016年第22期129-135,共7页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：塔里木大学校长基金青年创新资金项目"基于模糊数学的塔里木河流域农业气候资源评价研究"(TDZKQN201507)

摘　　要：塔里木河流域是国家最主要的棉区之一,评价该流域棉花种植的气候资源适宜性有一定的意义.首先,利用塔里木河流域23个气象站点1995-2014年的气候资料,借助SAS软件对日平均温度、日最高温度、日最低温度、日照时数和平均风速进行主成分分析,得到塔里木河流域棉花种植气候资源适宜性评价函数.然后,根据棉花种植气候资源适宜性评价函数对23个县市进行评分,取其与各县市的灌溉潜力值之和的加权平均值作为棉花种植适宜性综合得分,发现温度和灌溉条件是塔里木河流域棉花种植适宜性的主要影响因素.最后,运用SAS软件对棉花种植适宜性综合得分进行聚类分析,针对棉花种植适宜性,把该流域分别分为适宜区、次适宜区和不适宜区三类.The Tarim River Basin is one of the country＇s main cotton-growing areas,so it has a certain significance that evaluate the climate resources and climate suitability for cotton cultivation in the basin.Based on the climate data from 23 meteorological stations in Tarim River Basin during 1995-2014,the paper uses SAS to analysis the principal of the daily average temperature,daily maximum temperature,daily minimum temperature,sunshine duration and average wind speed,which can gets the evaluation function of the climate resources and climate suitability for cotton cultivation in the basin.Then the paper gets the climate resources and climate suitability scores for cotton cultivation of the 23 counties by the suitability evaluation function,and further gets the synthesis score of the suitability for cotton cultivation which is the weighted average of the irrigation potential value and the climate resources and climate suitability scores.The finding by analysis is that the temperature and the irrigation condition are the main impact factor on cotton cultivation in the basin.Lastly,the cluster analysis of the synthesis score of cotton cultivation suitability is carried out by using SAS can be used to find the planting suitability regionalization of cotton in the Basin,that is the suitable areas,the sub-suitable areas and unsuitable area.

关 键 词：塔里木河流域 棉花种植 气候资源 适宜性 主成分分析法 

分 类 号：S562[农业科学—作物学]