政策不确定性对企业投资的抑制作用--基于PSM-DID方法的实证研究  

Policy Uncertainty and Cooperate Investment:An Empirical Research Based on PSM-DID Approach

作　　者：许天启[1] 董志勇[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学经济学院

出　　处：《中央财经大学学报》2016年第12期65-75,共11页Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics

摘　　要：笔者采用准自然实验的方式,通过PSM-DID模型检验了政策不确定性对企业投资的抑制作用。我们通过对比福建省内企业与华东地区其他省份企业在台海关系紧张前后投资增长的变化发现,政策不确定性对企业的投资有显著的抑制作用。具体而言,在平行趋势假设满足的前提下,福建省内企业在台海关系紧张后,与华东其他省份的企业相比投资显著减少。在此基础之上,笔者根据企业性质的异质性和行业竞争程度探讨了企业受政策不确定性影响的异质性。结果发现,民营企业受政策不确定性的影响较大。在市场竞争程度方面,市场竞争的激烈程度与企业投资的异质性成显著正向关系。市场竞程度越激烈,企业受政策不确定性影响越大。相反,对于那些市场竞争不激烈的行业,政策不确定性对企业投资的影响不显著。结论表明,政策不确定性对企业的投资有显著的抑制作用,但这一作用引起各类企业的反应并不相同。Our paper empirically examines the negative effect of policy uncertainty and corporate invest- ment by a natural experiment using PSM-DID method. By comparing the change in investment between Fujian and other provinces lies in Huadong area before and after policy shock between China's Mainland and Taiwan province, we find that policy uncertainty will decrease cooperate for investment significantly. More specifical- ly, given the parallel assumption is valid, firms lie in policy shock. Furthermore, we also examine whether competitiveness of the industry. Our finding indicates Fujian province reduce investment significantly after the this effect is consistent across different ownerships or that the negative effect of policy uncertainty influences more on non-SOEs than SOEs firms. And for those firms operating in a competitive market, policy uncertainty has a more significant effect on firm＇s investment. This finding confirms our assumption that the policy uncer- tainty has a negative effect on investment and varies across different type of firm.

关 键 词：政策不确定性 企业投资 PSM—DID 

分 类 号：F275.6[经济管理—企业管理]