新媒体环境下网络舆情演化模型及仿真研究——基于信息生态视角  

Evolution Model and Simulation of Online Public Opinion in new Media Environment:Based on Information Ecology Perspective

作　　者：王晰巍[1] 赵丹[1] 李嘉兴[1] 杨梦晴 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学管理学院信息管理系,长春130022

出　　处：《情报学报》2016年第10期1011-1021,共11页Journal of the China Society for Scientific and Technical Information

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目"信息生态视角下新媒体信息消费行为机理及服务模式创新研究(项目编号:71673108);"吉林大学高峰学科(群)建设项目"研究成果之一

摘　　要：越来越多的网民通过使用新媒体工具进行网络舆情表达,新媒体环境下网络舆情模型研究有助于揭示网络舆情在新媒体环境下的演进特点,从而为加强网络舆情管理提供指导。论文从信息生态视角出发,基于传染病模型,构建了新媒体环境下网络舆情演化生态模型,以新浪微博"埃博拉"热点话题为实验数据分析样本,采用Matlab编程方式进行数值仿真。仿真结果验证了模型的有效性,剖析了新媒体传播个体随时间变化的规律,以及新媒体感染率对感染者和免疫者的影响,分析了信息的四个因子对感染者密度的影响,揭示了初始新媒体易感者比例对感染者和免疫者密度的影响关系。论文的研究为新媒体环境下网络舆情演进提供了新的理论研究视角,为政府加强新媒体环境下的网络舆情监管提供参考。Because of growing number of netizens using new media to express online public opinion, it is helpful to reveal the evolution characteristics of online public opinion with the. study of online public opinion model in order to offer a reference for government to strengthen supervision of online public opinion in the environment of new media. From the perspective of information ecology this paper constructs an ecological model of online public opinion evolution in the new media environment based on epidemic model. And it takes the hot topic of Weibo, ＇ Ebola＇ as experimental data and makes a numerical simulation with Matlab. The model is validated by the result of simulation which analyses the time variation law of new media individual and the influence of new media infection rate on the infected and immune. This paper also makes an analysis of four information factors influencing on the density of infected persons which reveals the relationship between initial new media susceptible person rate and the infected and immune. This study provides a new research perspective for the evolution of online public opinion and offers a reference for government to strengthen supervision of online public opinion in the new media environment.

关 键 词：新媒体 网络舆情 传染病模型 仿真研究 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术] G206[自动化与计算机技术—计算机科学与技术]