基于Bayes-OWA混合算子的生鲜农产品供应链风险诊断  

Risk Diagnosis of Fresh Agricultural Products Supply Chain Based on Bayes-OWA Mixed Operator

作　　者：褚超[1] 黄建华[1] 

机构地区：[1]福州大学经济与管理学院,福建福州350116

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报（信息与管理工程版）》2016年第6期686-689,共4页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology：Information & Management Engineering

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(13BGL059);教育部人文社科青年基金项目(11YJC630072)

摘　　要：受制于生鲜农产品自身的特殊性,生鲜农产品供应链需要面对来自于自然、市场、政策、技术及环境等多领域的风险。首先,在多维度风险识别的基础上,构建了基于Bayes-OWA混合算子的生鲜农产品供应链风险推理和诊断模型;然后,应用贝叶斯网络模型结合OWA算子,从正向和逆向两个维度对生鲜农产品供应链风险产生概率、风险成因、风险等级评价、风险排序等问题进行了分析;最后,应用实例对模型和求解方法进行了验证。结果表明,该方法不仅能多维度地识别农产品供应链面临的风险,还能有效地对风险进行评价、排序,并揭示风险的成因,对识别、规避生鲜农产品供应链面临的风险具有重要意义。Subject to the particularity of the fresh agricultural products,fresh agricultural products supply chain need to face the risk from various fields of natural,market,policy,technology and environment. Firstly,on the basis of multi-dimensional risk identification,this paper constructs a model of supply chain risk reasoning and diagnostic model of fresh agricultural products based on Bayes - OWA mixed operator. Then,it analyzed fromtwo dimensions of forward and reverse for fresh agricultural prod-ucts supply chain risk on probability,risk management,risk assessment and risk sorting problems by applying Bayesian network model and OWA operator. Finally,examples of the model and solving method is validated. The results show that this method can not only identify the risks of the aaricultural supply chain,but also can effectively evaluate the risk,sorting,and reveal the cause of the risk. It is of great significance to identify and avoid the risk of the supply chain of fresh agricultural products.

关 键 词：生鲜农产品 供应链 BAYES网络 OWA算子 风险诊断 

分 类 号：F274[经济管理—企业管理]