基于动态变权模糊Petri网的地铁火灾风险评估  

On the subway fire risk assessment based on the dynamically variable weight Petri net

作　　者：褚鹏宇[1] 刘澜[1] 尹俊淞[1] CHU Peng-yu LIU Lan YIN Jun-song(School of Transportation and Logistics, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031, China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,成都610031

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2016年第6期39-44,共6页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：四川省科技支撑计划项目(2014GZ0019)

摘　　要：为了实现对地铁火灾风险的准确评估,引入模糊Petri网建立基于模糊产生式规则的地铁火灾风险评估模型。通过发掘火灾演变的内在机理,将其划分为火情发生、火情识别、火情控制、火灾形成4个阶段,并给出了不同阶段推动火灾发展进程的关键要素。利用模糊Petri网模型图形化展示火灾发展的连锁反应过程。针对传统赋权方法造成权重与要素自身状态相脱节的弊端,采用动态赋权理念构造动态变权模糊Petri网模型,真实反映不同要素对火灾发展的贡献程度。以成都市某地铁站为例,在专家打分法评估致因要素安全状态的基础上,利用矩阵算法进行推理,得出风险等级为可接受,表明该方法可以为地铁火灾风险管理提供决策支持。In order to realize the accurate and efficient evaluation of the subway fire risk, this paper intends to introduce the fuzzy Petri net to establish a fire risk evaluation model on the basis of the fuzzy production regularity. While exploring the inherent mechanism of the fire evolution making, we have divided the fire evolving process into four stages, that is, the fire germination, discovering, control and finalization. At the same time, we have also brought about the key involved factors that contribute to the fire development at different stages. To solve the problems involved with the traditional evaluation methods for depicting the dynamic process of the fire growth, we have adopted the fuzzy Petri net model to present the fire chain reaction process in a graphical manner and represent all the chief factors directly concerning the fire accident, such as the place, transition, and the directly spreading arcs to figure out the static logic configuration of the fire development, as well as the tokens move in the places so as to simulate the dynamic process of the fire evolutionary history. In contrast to the disadvantages of the conventional weight determining methods that may result in the disjunction of the weight and the key factors status in-situ, we have set up the dynamic variable weight fuzzy Petri net model with the help of the dynamic weight index theory. The stage that the fire tends to reach has been regarded as the risk grade standard, whereas the risk level and the fire accident consequence can be directly analyzed in a proportional manner. What＇s more, we have laid out a matrix reasoning algorithm that can turn the complex reasoning process into the simplified matrix operation steps. And, finally, we have taken a certain subway station in Chengdu as a case study sample to verify the validity of the proposed model. While assessing the safety status of the key causative factors through the expert evaluation approach, we have managed to apply the matrix algorithm to the actual fire risk practice. T

关 键 词：安全工程 地铁火灾 动态变权 模糊PETRI网 风险评估 

分 类 号：X928.7[环境科学与工程—安全科学]