应对突发自然灾害的应急物流优化研究  

The Emergency Logistics Optimization Research of Sudden Natural Disasters

作　　者：李梦思[1] 刘玥彤[1] 周志敏[1] 黄奥[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国传媒大学理工学部,北京100024

出　　处：《中国传媒大学学报（自然科学版）》2016年第5期49-55,共7页Journal of Communication University of China：Science and Technology

基　　金：国家级大学生创新项目(G2013027)

摘　　要：通过收集到的1975年海城地震和1978年唐山地震的道路相关信息,运用线性回归构建道路震害指数评估模型,对地震发生后的道路受损程度做评估。同时,利用《中国震历》中实际地震发生时的地震震级、烈度、受灾总人口数等11项指标通过BP神经网络模型预测受伤人数和死亡人数。最后的物流优化模型运用前两个模型预测得到的道路震害指数和伤亡人口数推算出通行时间和通行成本,从而建立多目标规划。这样在地震发生后,三个模型紧密结合,能够使相关部门结合事先收集和震后采集的数据评估道路震害指数和预测伤亡人口数,从而制定出合理的应急物流优化方案,快速高效地进行运输路线规划、物资调配等一系列救援活动。It is not hard to find some defects in the current emergency management system, referring to the relative materials, for instances, the obstruction of information flow, lack and delay of the emergency goods in the stricken area. In this study, way damage is introduced with the collected information in regard to the the damage of the roads, the the evaluation method of highdamaged roads. At the same time, the number of injuries and deaths is also estimated through the BP neural network with influence factors such as the earthquake magnitude, epicenter intensity. Thus, on the condition of information jam and roads damage, nonetheless, a reasonable emergency plan is also able to be made up after evaluating the impairment of roads and the number of casualty, de-ploying the earthquake relief effectively.

关 键 词：应急物流 震害指数 伤亡人口 预测 

分 类 号：O29[理学—应用数学]