市场培养期内机场长途巴士时刻表动态优化  

Dynamic optimization of the timetable of airport coach during cultivation period

作　　者：陆婧[1] 杨忠振[1] 王文娣[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学交通运输管理学院,大连116026

出　　处：《管理科学学报》2016年第12期14-24,共11页Journal of Management Sciences in China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(71431001);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(3132016303)

摘　　要：为应对日益激烈的竞争,一部分民航机场增加长途巴士服务以强化竞争力,长途巴士开行后机场市场份额逐渐上升的过程通常叫做市场培育期,缩短培育期是强化长途巴士效率与效果的关键.文章站在运营者的角度,以培育期最短、机场市场份额增幅最大、运营成本最低为多重目标,动态优化培育期内机场长途巴士的时刻表,得到培育期内各时点的巴士发车时刻表与机场市场份额的增长曲线.优化模型刻画了乘客机场选择习惯的变化与发车时刻表之间的互动关系,以及前后时间点上机场市场份额的动态联系.计算结果显示,动态时刻表可缩短机场长途巴士的市场培育期,迅速增加机场的市场份额.As the competition among airports in China becomes increasingly intense, airports have to introduce new services to enhance their competitiveness. As a result, the market share of the airport may increase and the increment in market share would last for a long period which is usually called the cultivation period. Short- ening the cultivation period is the key to improve the efficiency and the effectiveness of new services. To maxi- mize the increment in the market share and minimize the cultivation period as well as operation cost, a multi- objective model is established to dynamically optimize the timetable of airport coach during the cultivation-peri- od. By solving the model, the timetable on every time slice during the cultivation period and the curve descri- bing the increment in the market share are obtained. The interaction between passengers＇ airport choice and the timetable, as well as the dynamic relationship between the market share on the pre-order and follow-up time point is described explicitly in the model. Results indicate that the dynamic timetable could shorten the cultivation period of the new service and impel the market share to grow rapidly.

关 键 词：机场长途巴士 时刻表优化 动态优化 行为模拟 市场培育期 

分 类 号：U8[交通运输工程] F562.5[经济管理—产业经济]