农产品质量安全风险评估方法探索  

Study on Risk Assessment Method of Agricultural Product Quality and Safety

作　　者：刘翠玲[1] 戴月[1] 赵琦[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京工商大学计算机与信息工程学院/食品安全大数据技术北京市重点实验室,北京100048

出　　处：《食品科学技术学报》2016年第6期79-84,共6页Journal of Food Science and Technology

基　　金：北京市自然科学基金资助项目(4142012);北京市教委科研计划重点项目(KZ201310011012)

摘　　要：由于现有的农产品质量安全风险评估方法大多针对单一因子评估,试图通过借鉴其他领域的评估方法为农产品质量安全风险评估提供新思路。提出利用经济管理方面常用的综合评价方法,建立农产品品质多指标综合评估模型。农产品一般具有样本数据规模小、与复杂环境信息关联性尚不明确的特点,可以选取灰色预测等适用于小样本预测的模型和关联分析方法,分析与农产品质量相关性较大的环境因素。根据不同农产品的特点,选取适当的辅助模型,完善风险评估工作。The existing quality and safety risk assessment methods for agricultural products are mostly the single factor evaluation. The valuation methods of other fields could provide new ideas for agricultural product risk assessment. The multi index evaluation methods, which are widely used in economic management field, can be applied to evaluate the quality of agricultural products. Due to the small sam-ple size of agricultural products and the complexity of the relationship between agricultural products ’ quality and environmental information, the grey forecasting model and correlation analysis methods are discussed in this paper. Moreover, according to the characteristics of different agricultural products to se-lect appropriate auxiliary models can improve the risk assessment.

关 键 词：风险评估 多指标综合评价法 权重系数 预警模型 

分 类 号：TS207[轻工技术与工程—食品科学] TS210.7[轻工技术与工程—食品科学与工程]