中国自然灾害的空间特征研究  

Research on Spatial Characteristics of Natural Disasters in China

作　　者：王晟哲[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南石油大学法学院

出　　处：《中国人口科学》2016年第6期68-77,共10页Chinese Journal of Population Science

基　　金：国家社科基金项目"气候灾害频发区域农村气候贫困人口迁移问题研究"(编号:12BRK020)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：文章应用空间自相关模型和GIS技术,测算并绘制出自然灾害受灾面积省域分布Moran's I散点图,藉此呈现自然灾害高—高、低—低、高—低、低—高集聚4种空间象限关系,并通过LISA集聚图划分了集聚分布区域,发现空间分布并非随机而是具有规律可循的,存在显著空间依赖性特征,并呈现出省域旱灾、风雹等损失类型的带状、团状、点状或离散等空间分布规律和特征。研究发现,自然灾害频发、生态脆弱区域往往与贫困地区存在空间叠加关系,致贫返贫效应长期恶性循环且难以消除。This paper calculates and plots provincial distribution Moran's I scatter diagram of natural disasters affected area by utilizing spatial autoregressive model and GIS. It establishes four spatial quadrants of natural disasters: high-high, low-low,high-low, and low-high. In addition, this paper divides distribution area by using LISA and finds that the spatial distribution is well-regulated rather than random, and shows notable dependence character. Moreover, space distribution of drought, wind and hail, and other disaster-affected type have some regularities and characters, such as punctiform, clustered, zonal and discrete.The research with space perspective finds that natural disasters occur frequently and ecologically vulnerable areas normally associate with depressed poor areas. Therefore, the effect of poverty caused by poverty forms a vicious circle, and it is difficult to eliminate.

关 键 词：自然灾害 空间特征 扶贫搬迁 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]