保税物流区域发展对地区经济增长影响的实证分析——以浙江省保税物流区域为例  

Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Bonded Logistics Area Development on Regional Economic Growth——A Case Study of the Bonded Logistics Areas of Zhejiang Province

作　　者：戴小红[1] 何晓洁[1] DAI Xiao-hong HE Xiao-jie(School of Business, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China)

机构地区：[1]中南大学商学院,湖南长沙410083

出　　处：《商业经济与管理》2016年第12期55-61,共7页Journal of Business Economics

基　　金：浙江省哲学社会科学规划课题(310CGYD98YBM)

摘　　要：我国保税物流区域正处于整合优化升级的关键时期,在深化改革扩大开放中起示范引领作用,为实现经济协调发展和可持续增长提供了战略机遇。文章利用浙江省1995-2015年的数据,运用VAR模型,通过协整检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解,实证研究保税物流区域的保税物流、保税加工、进出口贸易对浙江省经济增长的动态影响。研究发现:保税物流区域变量与浙江省经济增长之间存在长期协整关系;其对浙江省经济增长影响作用的大小依次为保税加工货值、进出口总额、海关特殊监管区域物流货值;从长期来说,保税加工货值、进出口总额均具有正向促进作用,海关特殊监管区域物流货物显示为较小负向作用。根据研究结论,文章提出了政策建议。China＇s bonded logistics areas are now in the critical period of integrated and optimized upgrading, which plays a leading role in the deepening of the reform and opening up and provides a strategic opportunity for the economic coordinated develop- ment and sustainable growth. With the data of Zhejiang Province from 1995 to 2015, with the VAR model, through co-integration test, impulse response function and variance decomposition, this paper studies empirically the dynamic effect of bonded logistics, bonded processing, import and export trade on the economic growth in Zhejiang Province. It is found that there is a long-term co-in- tegrating relationship between the regional variables of bonded logistics and the economic growth of Zhejiang Province. The impact on the strength of economic growth in Zhejiang Province is, based on the significance, as follows：the value of bonded processing, total export-import volume, the value of logistics in the special customs supervision area. In the long run, the value of bonded processing and the total export-import volume have a positive promoting role. The value of logistics in the special customs supervision area shows a relatively small negative effect. Based on the research conclusion, this paper puts forward policy recommendations.

关 键 词：海关特殊监管区域物流货物 保税加工货值 进出口总额 地区经济增长 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]