灰色马尔科夫模型在全国造船用钢量预测中的应用  

Application of Grey Markov Model in Prediction of National Shipbuilding Steel Consumption

作　　者：梁赞通[1] 吴绍科 张跃文[1] 达勇[1] 王在忠[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]中国船级社大连分社,辽宁大连116026 [2]大连海事大学船舶动力装置远程监控实验室,辽宁大连116026 [3]中国船级社青岛分社,山东青岛266071

出　　处：《船海工程》2016年第A01期137-140,共4页Ship & Ocean Engineering

摘　　要：传统灰色模型GM（1，1）对于随机波动性较大的数据序列拟合较差，预测精度较低，为了弥补这一缺陷，更准确预测全国造船用钢量，将GM（1，1）模型和马尔科夫模型有机结合，构建了灰色马尔科夫模型，用此模型进行用钢量预测，与传统的灰色模型相比较，发现灰色马尔科夫模型预测结果偏差更小，可行性更好，较适用于此类预测研究。The conventional grey model GM （ 1,1 ） have the poor fit to the data sequence which have large stochastic volatili- ty and the low prediction accuracy. In order to fill the gap and predict the steel consumption of national shipbuilding more accu- rately, the GM （ 1,1 ） model and Markov model were organically combined to establish the grey Markov model, The model was used to predict the national shipbuilding steel consumption. It showed that the grey Markov model is more suitable for such prediction research with smaller prediction error and better feasibility.

关 键 词：GM(1  1) 马尔科夫模型 造船用钢量 预测 

分 类 号：U668.2[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程]