海上交通安全系统演化研究  

The safety evolution mechanism research on the marine traffic system

作　　者：曹亮[1] 刘正江[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学航海学院,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《船海工程》2016年第A01期238-244,共7页Ship & Ocean Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目（51309041）;国家863计划资助项目（2009AA045003）;中央高校基本科研业务费基金资助项目（2015YB03,3132014201）

摘　　要：揭示海上交通事故发生原因和规律一直是海上交通安全领域的热点问题之一。对海上交通事故致因和机理研究进行了评述。对“危险”“事故”“安全”“风险”“致因”“机理”和“演化”等几个关键概念进行了回顾、比较和讨论。在此基础上，指出现有致因理论的不足，认为机理研究是揭示海上交通系统安全演化规律的最佳方法。根据系统元素和结构的特点，引入耗散结构理论、演化理论，揭示海上交通系统的进化和退化机制。Revealing the mechanism of marine traffic accidents has been one of hot issues in the field of maritime traffic safety. The cause and mechanism of the maritime traffic accidents were analyzed. A few key concepts were reviewed, compared and discussed such as danger, accidents, safety, risk, cause, mechanism and evolution. The shortage of the existing cause theo- ry was found. It can be concluded that deep research of safety mechanism is the best way to illustrate the evolution of marine traffic system safety. Based on the analysis of system elements and structure, the theory of dissipative structure theory was introduced into revealing the evolution mechanism of marine traffic system.

关 键 词：海上交通系统 安全 演化机理 

分 类 号：N945[自然科学总论—系统科学] U698[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]