基于气象因子的逐步回归分析技术在水文长期预报中的应用  

Application of stepwise regression analysis technique based on meteorological factor in the long-term hydrological forecasting

作　　者：冯健 FENG Jian(Hydrology Bureau of Heilongj iang Province, Harbin 150001, China)

机构地区：[1]黑龙江省水文局,黑龙江哈尔滨150001

出　　处：《黑龙江水利》2016年第11期42-45,共4页

摘　　要：将嫩江富拉尔基水文站自1983年以来的流量年极大值系列资料作为预报对象,气象130项指数作为预报因子,采用逐步回归分析技术建立预测模型进行试报和检验,并对成果进行了分析论证。结果表明,逐步回归分析技术建立的预测模型具有较好的历史拟合及预测效果,具有一定的可信度。The Nenjiang River in Fulaerji Hydrology station since 1983 the annual maximum flow series of data as forecast object, meteorological 130 index as a forecast factor, the prediction model was established by stepwise regression analysis to reporting and test, and the results were analyzed and demonstrated, the results show that the prediction model established by stepwise regression method has good historical fitting and forecasting effect, and has certain credibility.

关 键 词：逐步回归 水文长期预报 气象因子 预测模型 

分 类 号：O242[理学—计算数学] P338[理学—数学]