平原农区农村聚落合理用地规模测算研究:以山东省禹城市为例  

Estimation of Reasonable Scale of Rural Settlements in Plain Agricultural Areas: A Case Study of Yucheng,Shandong Province

作　　者：郭连凯 陈玉福[1,2] GUO Lian-kai CHEN Yu-fu(Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resource Re-search ,Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京100101 [3]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《生态与农村环境学报》2017年第1期47-54,共8页Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41371186;41130748)

摘　　要：对农村土地利用未来情景和农村聚落用地合理规模的预测分析,是挖掘农村土地整治潜力和优化农村土地利用空间格局的基础。以位于黄淮海平原的山东省禹城市为例,从耕地聚落比值优化的角度探讨未来农户不同兼业化程度情景下农村聚落用地的合理规模。结果表明,种植业收入是影响禹城市农户收入的重要因素,平原农区农村人口和聚落的合理规模测算需要综合考虑区域耕地规模;当前禹城市农村地区耕地聚落比值较低(3.9),绝大部分村庄耕地聚落比值在2~6之间,占村庄总数的75%左右,区域耕地聚落比值亟须优化和提高;在农户兼业化现状情景和深化发展情景下,合理耕地聚落比值分别为9.95和15.99,农村聚落合理用地规模分别为6 638和4 278 hm2,可腾退潜力分别为8 121和10 481 hm2;未来禹城市农村聚落用地整治增地率约为55.02%~71.01%,但现实整治增地潜力很大程度上取决于未来城镇化发展情景与土地制度改革的创新力度。Analysis for prediction of future scenarios of land use in rural areas and reasonable scales of land use for rural settlements is the foundation for excavating the potential of land integration and optimizing the spatial pattern of rural land use. A case study of Yucheng of Shandong Province was performed to explore reasonable scales of land use for rural settle-ment in the future scenario of farning becoming a part-time job for most farmers from the aspect of optimization of the ratio of cultivated land to residential land. Results show： （ 1 ） The farming income is a major factor affecting the income of a farm household, and to predict a reasonable scale of land use for rural settlement, it is necessar to take into account com-prehensively the scale of cultivated land in the region studied; （2 ） The current ratio of cultivated land to residential land in Yucheng is quite low- or 3. 9 on average and about 75% of the villages lingered in the range of 2- 6, which indicates that it is essential or critical to raise or optimize the ratio; （3 ） In the future scenario of farming becoming a part-time job and its in-depth development, the reasonable ratios of cultivated land to residential land will be 9. 95 and 15. 99, respectively, and the reasonable scale of land use for rural settlement in Yucheng will be 6 638 and 4 278 hm2, respectively, with the potential of reclaiming 8 121 and 10 481 hm2 of vacated residential land; And （4 ） the study predicted that the realignment of rural settlements may expand the farmland by 55. 02%-71. 01% in Yucheng in 2020, but in reality, the potential de-pends by a large margin on development of urbanization and the strength of reformation of the land policy in the future.

关 键 词：土地利用 农村聚落 耕地聚落比值 禹城市 平原农区 

分 类 号：K901.8[历史地理—人文地理学] X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]