基于组合模型的交通流量预测研究  

Research on Forecasting Traffic Flow Based on Combination Model

作　　者：杨亚杰[1] 韩印[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海理工大学管理学院,上海200093

出　　处：《物流工程与管理》2017年第1期80-82,共3页Logistics Engineering and Management

基　　金：上海市一流学科项目(S1201YLXK)

摘　　要：随着我国城市化进程的加快,小汽车保有量持续增长,因而城市道路上的车流量也是逐年增加,做好交通流量的预测对城市出行者以及交通管理者具有重大意义,道路交通状态的动态分析和预测是一项关键的基础研究,文中运用指数平滑法和多元回归模型组合进行交通预测,目的是为了发挥每种预测方法各自的优点,克服其各自的缺陷,力求得到更加理想的预测效果。With the speed of urbanization process increase dramaticlly, the steady growth of car ownership, traffic flow on city road is also increasing year by year, So the traffic flow on the urban road is also increasing year by year. The prediction of traffic flow is of great significance to the urban traveler and traffic management. As a part of Intelligent Transportation System, dynamic analysis and prediction of road traffic state is a key basic research, this paper is to use combination model for traffic prediction, the purpose is to play each prediction method respective advantage, overcome their respective defects to get more ideal forecast effect.

关 键 词：智能交通系统 指数平滑法 多元回归分析法 组合预测模型 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]