基于敏感源分析的动态大气污染排放方案模拟  

Model Assessment of Dynamical Atmospheric Pollution Control Schemes Based on Sensitive Source Zone Analysis

作　　者：徐敬[1,2] 张小玲[1,2] 蔡旭晖[3] 赵秀娟[1,2] 苏捷[1,2] 张自银[1,2] 温维[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]京津冀环境气象预报预警中心,北京100089 [2]中国气象局北京城市气象研究所,北京100089 [3]北京大学环境科学与工程学院,北京100871

出　　处：《应用气象学报》2016年第6期654-665,共12页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

基　　金：北京市科委首都蓝天行动培育专项(Z141100001014013);国家科技支撑计划课题(2014BAC23B03);国家自然科学基金项目(41505110;41305130);北京市自然基金项目(8132025)

摘　　要：选取2014年11月6—11日一次典型污染过程,以北京城区为重点关注的目标区域,基于印痕分析技术判别对该区域影响较大的敏感源区,设计重点区域减排试验和敏感源区逐日动态减排试验,利用区域化学传输模式WRFChem进行模拟对比。结果显示:上述两种方案对源强较高的减排当地PM_(2.5)浓度降低均有明显的改善作用,且在传输作用下会辐射影响到下游地区;但仅就目标区域而言,敏感源区减排方案的减排效率要远远高于重点区域减排方案。为了验证基于敏感源分析的动态减排方法的适用性,进一步开展了不同季节以及不同背景浓度的个例模拟。结果表明:基于敏感源区分析结果制定动态逐日减排措施,可降低削减成本、提高减排效率,以达到最具经济环境效益的减排效果。In recent years,the atmospheric environment in parts of China has become significantly degraded and the need for emission controlling has become urgent.As more international events have been carried out,and more serious pollution weather happens frequently,it is important to implement air quality assurance targeted at significant events held during specific periods.A representative pollution episode,6 November to 11 November in 2014 is chosen and simulations are carried out setting urban area of Beijing as the target region.By using the method of footprint analysis,the sensitive source zones that have the greatest impact on the air quality of the Beijing urban area are determined.Regional chemical and transportation model WRF-Chem is used to establish emission reduction tests for the focus source zones and for specific sensitive source zones within and around Beijing.Results show that two kinds of tests have significant effects on PM2.5 concentration decreasing in the emission reduction local with high intensity of emission source.Besides,the effect could also result in the decrease of pollutant concentration in downwind area under the transportation function.But only in terms of the target area,initiating a moderate emission reduction for specific sensitive source zones is more effective on the air quality of urban Beijing than initiating the same strength emission reduction for focus source zones.In certain cases when the PM2.5 direct emission reduction for the specific sensitive source zones accounts for less than 20%of focus source zones,the PM2 5 concentration reduction amount in Beijing urban area can reach the level when the sensitive source zones reduction scheme accounts for about 60%— 90%of focus source zones.This ratio maintains stable through all pollution process.Thus the daily dynamical emission reduction measures developed based on the sensitive source zones analysis,can help cut the emission control costs and improve the emission reduction efficiency.In addition,results from different study case

关 键 词：印痕 敏感源区 减排 数值模拟 

分 类 号：X51[环境科学与工程—环境工程]