基于GIS的江西省山洪灾害风险评价与分区  

Risk Assessment and Zoning of Mountain Torrent Disaster Based on GIS in Jiangxi Province

作　　者：方秀琴[1] 王凯[1] 任立良[2] 张晓祥[1] 冯莉[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学地球科学与工程学院,江苏南京211100 [2]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《灾害学》2017年第1期111-116,共6页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0601500);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(2016B05414);江西省2014年度山洪灾害防治项目(0628-156104104417)

摘　　要：结合江西省山洪灾害的特点,基于洪水灾害系统理论,从触发因子、孕灾环境和承灾体三个角度选取山洪灾害风险评价指标构建指标体系,采用层次分析法确定各个指标的权重,在GIS技术的支持下,对江西省山洪灾害风险评价进行定量分析并得出风险分区图,最后利用历史山洪灾害调查资料进行结果验证。验证结果表明,山洪灾害风险评价的精度在73%左右,证明采用的研究方法和构建的风险评价模型具有较高的可靠性。对山洪灾害风险图在行政分区、流域分区和地貌分区上进行了风险高值区面积绝对值和面积占比的定量统计分析,为江西省山洪灾害防治和各分区的监测和管理提供了重要的决策支持。Based on the characteristics of mountain torrent disasters in Jiangxi Province and systematic theory of flood disaster, we selected 9 risk assessment factors to set up the index system of mountain torrent disaster ac- cording to the trigger factors of flood, underlying surface environment and characteristics of disaster-bearing body. Afterwards, we determined the weight of each factor by analytic hierarchy process （AHP）. With the support of GIS technology, we made a quantitative analysis for mountain torrent disaster of Jiangxi Province and map the risk zon- ing. The survey data of historic mountain torrent disaster in Jiangxi Province were used to verify our quantitative a- nalysis results. Result of verification showed that the accuracy of risk assessment of mountain torrent disaster is a- round 73%, which confirmed high reliability and applicability of the approach and risk assessment model used in this study. Based on the mapping of mountain torrent disaster risk assessment, statistical analyses were made ac- cording to different administrative areas, basins and morphologic regions, which are vital to the prevention and management of mountain torrent disaster in Jiangxi Province.

关 键 词：山洪灾害 风险评价 GIS技术 层次分析法 江西 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] S422[农业科学—植物保护]