西安地区寒潮天气分型及精细化预报指标  

Typing Study and Fine Forecast Index of Cold Wave Weather in Xi'an Area

作　　者：乔娟 程龙 翟园 张雅斌 

机构地区：[1]西安市气象局,陕西西安710016

出　　处：《灾害学》2017年第1期132-136,共5页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：陕西省预报员专项科研基金(2014Y-5)

摘　　要：利用2001-2015年西安城区和6个区县194个寒潮个例的高空、地面和数值预报产品资料,运用天气学原理和统计学方法,分析了西安地区寒潮时空分布特征:2006年之后寒潮天气年际分布呈明显下降趋势,特别在2014-2015年和2010-2012年显著减少;3月和4月是西安寒潮多发期;寒潮天气空间分布表现为从城区向偏远区县逐渐增多的特征。根据冷空气不同移动路径将西安地区寒潮分为西北路冷空气型、北路冷空气型、西路冷空气型、东路冷空气型以及西北路冷空气和东路冷空气共同影响型五种。对比分析了五种寒潮伴随的不同气象特征。从高低空冷空气位置和温度变幅,24 h负变温范围和强度,地面冷高压变化强度等因子入手,分类型研究分别建立了各自高空预报指标、地面预报指标和EC数值模式预报指标。Based on the conventional sounding and meteorological observation data as well as numerical weather prediction product in Xi＇ an urban and six counties from 2001 to 2015, the spatial temporal features of cold wave weather occurred in Xi＇ an area are analyzed. It showed that frequency of cold wave weather declined obvious- ly since 2006, especially from 2014 to 2015 and from 2010 to 2012. As for monthly variation, cold wave appeared most in March and April. In terms of spatial distribution, cold wave weather appeared increased gradually from ur- ban to suburb. According to different moving paths of cold air, the cold wave weather in Xi＇ an was classified into 5 types, that is northwest road cold air, north road cold air, west road cold air, east road cold air and northwest - east road cold air. Besides, the different meteorological characteristics were comparative analyzed. Furthermore, by studying on the cold air position ＆ temperature range, 24 hours of negative temperature range and ground cold high pressure range, the altitude forecast indexes, land forecast indexes and EC numerical model prediction indexes of cold wave weather were summarized respectively.

关 键 词：寒潮 不同冷空气路径 分型研究 预报指标 西安地区 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] S165[农业科学—农业气象学]