中国水产品出口贸易增长特征及动态波动研究——基于修正的CMS模型的因素分解  

Characteristics and dynamic fluctuation of the growth of China's aquatic products exportation:an influential factor decomposition based on CMS model

作　　者：佟继英[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]唐山学院经济管理系,唐山063000 [2]辽宁大学经济学院,沈阳110036

出　　处：《世界农业》2017年第2期122-129,共8页World Agriculture

基　　金：2015年度河北省社会科学基金项目"基于‘港口-产业-城市’融合的京津冀港口群协同发展对策研究"(编号:HB15YJ012);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目"全球经贸体系重构下中国经济改革深化与发展方式转型研究"(编号:14JJD790021)

摘　　要：本文从贸易总额、市场分布、产品结构、地区分布和贸易方式等5个方面分析了1992—2015年中国水产品出口贸易增长特征。选取2001—2014年联合国商品贸易统计数据库(UN Comtrade)数据,运用修订的一国多产品的CMS模型对中国水产品出口贸易增长因素进行分解。CMS测算结果表明:市场竞争力效应的贡献率为68.49%,是中国水产品出口贸易增长的主导因素;市场需求引致效应的贡献率为30.17%,中国水产品出口贸易增长一定程度上得益于国际市场需求的扩张。针对中国水产品贸易出口增长因素的分解,从优化出口结构、完善质量监控及跟踪体系、提高水产品附加值等方面提出对策建议。This paper analysis the characteristics of China's aquatic products exportation from 1992 to 2015,using trade volume,market distribution,product structure,regional distribution and trade mode.This paper adopts the Constant Market Share Model to decompose its influential factors by using 2001-2014 annual trade data.The empirical study results demonstrate as follows:the competitiveness effect contributed 68.49% to the total effect,which showed that the improvement of China's export competitiveness was the most crucial positive factor for the growth of China's aquatic products exportation;the market effect contributed 30.17%to total effect,which showed that the growth of China's aquatic products exportation partly benefited from the increase of the aquatic products demand in the world.Based on the analysis of the empirical conclusions,this paper presents the corresponding policy recommendations,which are to promote China's export competitiveness and to optimize the export commodity structure to achieve a win-win situation.

关 键 词：中国 水产品 出口 贸易增长 CMS模型 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济] F752.62