基于BP神经网络的中医药产业安全评价与预警研究  

Research on early-warning and evaluation of traditional Chinese medicine industry security based on BP neural network

作　　者：汤少梁[1] 张笑笑[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京中医药大学卫生经济管理学院,江苏南京210023

出　　处：《中草药》2017年第2期406-418,共13页Chinese Traditional and Herbal Drugs

基　　金：国家中医药管理局与江苏省人民政府共建重点项目"基于知识产权保护的中医药产业安全政策研究"(SJGJ013)

摘　　要：通过文献研究确定中医药产业安全评价指标,运用灰色系统理论计算指标缺失值,熵权法确定指标权重,灰色关联分析法评价2002—2014年中医药产业安全状况,再运用灰色预测、线性回归模型等方法预测2015—2020年中医药产业安全各评价指标数据,将所得预测值同历史数据相结合,建立中医药产业安全BP神经网络预警模型,并对2015—2020年中医药产业安全状况进行系统预警,评价结果表明,未来6年我国中医药产业很安全,只需做轻度防范。Through literature research, the safety evaluation index of traditional Chinese medicine（TCM） industry is identified, missing index value is calculated using the grey system theory, and the index weight is determined by the entropy weight method. The TCM industry safety from 2002 to 2014 was evaluated by grey relational analysis, and the TCM industry security evaluation index data from 2015 to 2020 are predicted using grey prediction and linear regression model method, combining the predicted value with historical data, TCM industry security BP neural network prediction model is established, and TCM industry security from 2015 to 2020 will be early warning. The results show that the next six years, TCM industry in China is safe, only mild prevention.

关 键 词：中医药 产业安全 BP神经网络 评价 预警 

分 类 号：R288[医药卫生—中药学]