广东省能源消费碳排放影响机理分析——基于IO-SDA模型  

Analysis of Influencing Mechanism of Carbon Emissions in Guangdong Province Based on the IO-SDA Model

作　　者：王长建[1] 张虹鸥[1] 叶玉瑶[1] 苏泳娴[1] 陈伟莲[1] 

机构地区：[1]广州地理研究所//广东省地理空间信息技术与应用公共实验室,广州510070

出　　处：《热带地理》2017年第1期10-18,共9页Tropical Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年基金(41501144);广东省科学院青年科学研究基金(qnjj201501);广东省科学院引进高层次领军人才专项资金项目(2016GDASRC-0101);广东省科学院平台环境与能力建设专项资金项目(2016GDASPT-0210);广东省自然科学基金(2015A030313809)

摘　　要：通过构建"能源-经济-碳排放"混合型投入产出分析框架,利用扩展的结构分解模型,对广东省2002-2010年能源消费碳排放的影响因素进行结构分解分析。结果显示:1)广东省能源消费碳排放从2002年的5 820.55万t增长到2010年的12 097.91万t。2)碳排放影响因素的直接效应分析,经济规模和人口增长是广东省碳排放增长的主要驱动因素,同时生产结构在当前仍然是碳排放增长的正向驱动因素,但是生产结构对于广东省碳排放增长的贡献率逐步降低。碳排放强度是遏制广东省碳排放增长的最主要贡献因子,最终需求结构对于广东省碳排放总量变化由正效应转变为负效应,逐渐成为遏制碳排放增长的主要贡献因子。3)碳排放影响因素的间接效应分析,国际出口、进口贸易和省域间调进、调出贸易对于广东省能源消费碳排放的变化影响显著。同时,固定资本形成和城镇居民消费对于广东省碳排放的增长有较强影响。4)不同最终需求对产业部门碳排放增长的分析表明,出口贸易引起的碳排放增长主要集中在电子与机械类行业和纺织服装业;省域间调出引起的碳排放增长主要集中在典型的能源密集型行业;固定资本形成引起的碳排放增长主要集中在建筑业;城镇居民消费引起的碳排放增长主要集中在交通运输业。Carbon emissions are the main contributor to anthropogenic climate change. The awareness of policy makers and government managers of Greenhouse Gases（GHG） reduction has been raised globally. China, the world＇s largest primary energy consumer and carbon emitter, has felt more international pressure on carbon emissions mitigation. Analysis of the driving factors of energy consumption related to carbon emissions from the regional perspective is necessary and helpful for China to achieve its reduction targets. Presently, how to curb carbon emissions while not come at the expense of slowering down social-economic development is a big dilemma faced by the local governments. Aims of this case study are to analyze the energy-related carbon emissions and to find out the most important driving factors to the carbon emissions increments in Guangdong, a low-carbon pilot province in eastern China. Our estimates were based on the national and provincial statistics, three time-series monetary input-output tables（MIOTs） in 2002, 2007 and 2010 were constructed. The energy consumption, economic and population data were collected from the regional energy balance table in the Guangdong Statistical Yearbook. Energy-related carbon emissions were calculated according to the method of the IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. It was observed that the total carbon emissions in Guangdong increased from 58.205 5×106 t in 2002 to 120.979 1×106 t in 2010. An environmental input–output structural decomposition analysis（IO-SDA） has been conducted in order to uncover the driving forces for the increment in energy-related carbon emissions in Guangdong from both production and final demands perspectives from 2002 to 2010. According to our research outcomes, emissions increase can be illustrated as a competition between consumption growth（per capita GDP） and efficiency improvement（carbon emission intensity）. Per capita GDP is the most important driver for the rapid emission growth, while carbon emission

关 键 词：碳排放 IO-SDA模型 能源消费 广东省 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]