电力系统中长期负荷预测方法发展探讨  

Discussion on Development of Mid-long-term Load Forecasting Method of Power System

作　　者：邢鲁华 付兆远[2] 施雨[2] 

机构地区：[1]国网山东省电力公司电力科学研究院,济南250003 [2]国网山东省电力公司济南供电公司,济南250012

出　　处：《山东电力技术》2017年第1期13-18,40,共7页Shandong Electric Power

摘　　要：中长期电力负荷预测的主要工作是预测未来几月、几年甚至更长时间段内的电力负荷的时间和空间分布,对于制定电力系统发展规划及燃料计划等具有重要指导作用。为充分利用现有研究成果,分析了中长期负荷预测的特点和现有成熟方法,分类讨论了各中长期负荷预测方法的适用条件和存在的问题。重点讨论了将主动配电网、电力大数据与云计算、空间电力负荷预测、数据预处理、预测误差评估和概率性负荷预测等纳入未来的中长期负荷预测方法研究体系中的必要性和重要意义,探讨了中长期负荷预测方法未来的研究重点及方向。The main task of mid-long-term load forecasting is to forecast the temporal and spatial distribution of power load for the next few months, years or even longer period.It plays an important role in guiding development plan and fuel plan of an electric power system.In order to make full use of existed research findings, characteristics of mid-long-term load forecasting and ever presented forecasting methods are analyzed, and applicable conditions and problems of these existed mid-long-term load forecasting methods are discussed.The necessity and importance of integrating the active distribution network, big data of electric power, cloud calculation, spatial load forecasting, data preprocessing, forecasting error evaluation and probabilistic load forecasting into the future research system of mid-long-term load forecasting are analyzed.Finally the emphasis and direction of mid-long-term load forecasting methods research in future are discussed.

关 键 词：电力系统 中长期负荷预测 主动配电网 大数据 概率性负荷预测 

分 类 号：TM71[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]