2017年国际原油市场走势分析与价格预测  

International Crude Oil Market Trend Analysis and Price Forecast in 2017

作　　者：姬强[1] 刘炳越[1,2] 赵万里[3] 马嫣然 范英[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院能源与环境政策研究中心,北京100190 [2]中国科学技术大学统计与金融系,合肥230026 [3]北京航空航天大学经济管理学院,北京100191 [4]中国科学技术大学管理学院,合肥230026

出　　处：《中国科学院院刊》2017年第2期196-201,共6页Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(91546109;71133005;71203210)

摘　　要：2017年,OPEC和非OPEC国家减产协议的执行力度将是影响国际石油价格走势的最大变数。国际石油市场供需两侧均面临很大的不确定性,美国页岩油产量的恢复速度、OECD国家石油需求的反弹力度以及新兴经济体对石油需求的拉动作用都将影响石油市场的再平衡状态。除此之外,美国加息的不确定性、市场投机的活跃程度以及地缘政治的"黑天鹅"事件都将增加油价的短期波动性。文章通过自主研发的油价综合分析预测系统预测,2017年国际油价将保持窄幅震荡,Brent年平均油价为56美元/桶,WTI年平均油价为55美元/桶,平均价差保持在1美元/桶左右。In 2017, the implementation progress of OPEC and non-OPEC production cut agreement will be the biggest uncertainty. Both the supply and demand sides in the international oil market are facing great uncertainty, in which the recovery speed of U.S. shale oil production, the redound degree of OECD countries＇ oil demand and the new oil consumption growth in emerging economies will affect the balance of the oil market. In addition, the uncertainty of U.S. interest rate hike, the active degree of market speculation and geopolitical Black Swan events will increase the short-term volatility of oil prices. Using our oil price analysis and forecasting synthetic system, we forecast that oil prices will still keep fluctuations at a narrow range in 2017, and the Brent average year price may stand at 56 dollar per barrel and WTI average year price stand at 55 dollar per barrel. The spread between Brent and WTI will be narrowed to 1 dollar per barrel.

关 键 词：国际原油市场 油价预测 走势分析 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济] F764.1