中国环境工程科技2035技术预见研究  

Technology Foresight Research on China's Environmental Engineering Science and Technology to 2035

作　　者：但智钢[1] 史菲菲[1] 王志增[2] 王辉锋[1] 张裴雷[1,3] 郝吉明[3] 段宁[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国环境科学研究院重金属清洁生产工程技术中心,北京100012 [2]中国林业科学研究院森林生态环境与保护研究所,北京100091 [3]清华大学环境学院,北京100084

出　　处：《中国工程科学》2017年第1期80-86,共7页Strategic Study of CAE

基　　金：中国工程院咨询项目"中国工程科技2035发展战略研究"(2015-ZD-14)

摘　　要：技术预见是制定科技发展战略和科技政策的重要基础,德尔菲调查是技术预见中最常用的方法。本研究通过文献分析、专家建议、会议讨论等方法,从大气污染防治、水污染防治、固体废弃物污染防治与资源化、土壤污染防治、生态保护与恢复、环境监测预警与风险控制、资源利用与清洁生产7个子领域提出我国环境工程领域的45项备选技术。根据德尔菲法的调查结果,初步筛选出2035年我国环境工程科技发展的关键技术、共性技术以及颠覆性技术,分析了技术实现时间、发展水平与制约因素,为未来20年我国环境工程科技发展战略和目标的制定提供参考。The Delphi method is the most common method of technology foresight, which is a significant basis for establishing devel- opment strategies and policies of science and technology. This study proposes 45 alternative technologies in the field of environmental engineering science and technology through a literature survey, experts＇ advice, and discussion meetings. These technologies relate to air pollution prevention and control; water pollution prevention and control; soil pollution prevention and control; solid waste pollution prevention, control, and utilization; ecological protection and restoration; environmental monitoring, early warning, and risk control; resource utilization and cleaner production. Based on results that were obtained according to the Delphi method, this research analyzes the realization time, R＆D level, and restriction factors for the key technologies, common technologies, and disruptive technologies that were determined for 2035. This study provides a reference for establishing development strategies and objectives for China＇s environ- mental engineering science and technology over the next 20 years.

关 键 词：环境工程科技 技术预见 德尔菲调查 关键技术 共性技术 颠覆性技术 

分 类 号：X32[环境科学与工程—环境工程]