航路飞行航空器冲突风险建模与灵敏度分析  

Aircraft Conflict Risk Modeling and Sensitivity Analysis of En-route

作　　者：李冰冰[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学空中交通管理学院,天津300300

出　　处：《军事交通学院学报》2017年第2期90-95,共6页Journal of Military Transportation University

摘　　要：航空器间冲突风险建模与分析是飞行冲突识别和评估的关键技术。以同航路不同高度层飞行的航空器为研究对象,考虑分别应用纵向/侧向/垂直间隔标准以及水平/垂直间隔标准两种情况,基于概率分析方法分别建立不同高度层飞行航空器间的冲突概率模型,并分别进行相对标称位移、间隔标准以及位置误差标准差对冲突概率影响的灵敏度分析;以航空器间相对标称位移变化趋势为基础,通过引入航空器间冲突风险严重度指数,进一步给出航空器间冲突风险模型。数值仿真算例验证了冲突风险建模与分析方法的可行性,以及灵敏度分析结论的准确性。Modeling of conflict risk between aircrafts is the key technology of flight conflict identification and evaluation. Considering the two status of longitudinal/lateral/vertical separation minima and horizontal/vertical separation minimum, the paper establishes conflict probability models of aircrafts in different flight level with probability analysis method respec- tively, and analyzes the sensitivity of impact of relative displacement, separation minima and position error on conflict prob- ability. It also presents conflict risk model between aircrafts by introducing conflict risk severity index based on changing trend of relative displacement between aircrafts. The numerical simulation case verifies the feasibility of conflict risk modeling and analysis method and the accuracy of sensitivity analysis result.

关 键 词：安全评估 航路飞行 冲突概率 冲突风险 灵敏度分析 

分 类 号：V328.1[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]