基于“灰色L-V”模型的综合交通竞合体系预判  

Foreast on The Coopetition Relationship Between Modes of Transportation Based on “Gray L-V”Model

作　　者：唐秋生[1] 汪勇[1] 聂化东 TANG Qiusheng WANG Yong NIE Huadong(School of Traffic ＆ Transportation, Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing 400074, Chin)

机构地区：[1]重庆交通大学交通运输学院,重庆400074

出　　处：《公路工程》2017年第1期96-100,114,共6页Highway Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51208538)

摘　　要：将传统的灰色模型与生态学中的Lotka-Volterra模型相结合,建立了预判综合交通竞争或合作体系的"灰色L-V(即Lotka-Volterra)"模型,并通过博弈论检验证明该模型适用于样本数据较少且资金环境有限的情况下,对具有竞合关系的不同交通方式间的互惠、抑制、无关或单向Logistic模式关系进行预判,从而为未来交通方式的发展提供战略决策建议。The paper combined traditional gray model and Lotl〈a-Volterra model of ecology, estab- lished the ＂gray L-V （namely Lotka-Volterra）＂ model to prejudge the eoopetition system of comprehen- sive transport, and proved by game theory that this model was applicable to the case of small samples and limited environment capacity, predicted the relationships of reciprocity, restrain, irrelevance or unidirec- tional Logistic model among different transportation modes which have competition and cooperation rela- tionships, thus providing strategic decision-making recommendations for the future development of traffic models.

关 键 词：交通方式 竞合关系 灰色模型 Lotka—Volterra模型 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]