面向主动响应和售电市场的主动配电系统负荷预测  

Load Forecast of Active Distribution System Based on Active Response and Electricity Market

作　　者：刘孝杰[1] 苏小林[1] 阎晓霞[1] 吴富杰 王佳伟[2] LIU Xiaojie SU Xiaolin YAN Xiaoxia WU Fujie WANG Jiawei(Department of Electronic Power Engineering, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030013, China State Grid Shanxi Electric Power Company, Taiyuan 030001, China)

机构地区：[1]山西大学电力工程系,太原030013 [2]国网山西省电力公司,太原030001

出　　处：《电力系统及其自动化学报》2017年第2期121-128,共8页Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA

摘　　要：随着配电系统广义需求响应资源增多和售电侧市场逐步开放,电网负荷需求和负荷特性随之发生变化,影响了传统负荷预测方法的预测精度。分析了影响用户差异性响应的各因素,提出主动配电系统分层分区结构下计及主动响应与售电市场影响的负荷精细化预测方法;基于精确识别用户响应模式的响应弹性矩阵,建立了经遗传算法优化的响应弹性矩阵负荷预测模型;通过算例计算,验证所提预测方法的有效性,并分析了影响预测精度的模型指标及高精度预测的指标参数取值方法。Along with the increase of generalized demand response resources in distribution system and the gradual open up of electricity market, the load demand and load characteristics of power grid change accordingly, which will affect the accuracy of traditional load forecasting methods. In this paper, various factors leading to the differentiation response of users are analyzed, and a fine load forecasting method with a muhilayer structure of active distribution system is pro- posed by considering the influences of active response and electricity market. On the basis of response elasticity matrix which can accurately identify the response mode of users, a response elasticity matrix based load forecasting model opti- mized by genetic algorithm is established. The calculation results of a case study demonstrate the effectiveness of the pro- posed forecasting method. Moreover, several indexes which may have influences on the forecasting accuracy, as well as the corresponding selection methods for parameters to ensure a higher forecasting accuracy, are analyzed.

关 键 词：主动配电系统 主动响应 负荷预测 弹性矩阵 遗传算法 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]