我国金融稳定与经济增长的非线性关联机制检验  

Nonlinear Correlation Mechanism Between Financial Stability and Economic Growth in China

作　　者：印重[1,2] 刘金全[1,2] 张都[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心,吉林长春130012 [2]吉林大学商学院,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《东北大学学报（社会科学版）》2017年第2期140-146,共7页Journal of Northeastern University(Social Science)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大资助项目(15ZDC008);中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目(2015BS012);吉林大学哲学社会科学研究种子基金资助项目(2016ZZ046)

摘　　要：基于金融稳定指数,通过固定和时变参数状态空间模型,检验了我国金融稳定与经济增长的非线性关联机制。研究发现,经济的短期极速增长将对金融稳定产生强烈的"抑制效应",但这种效应会随经济增速的放缓逐步减弱;当经济增长回复到适速区间后,对金融稳定的影响则表现为明显的"牵拉效应"。在未来一定时期内,我国经济增速只要在短期内不发生剧烈波动,其适度调整将更有益于我国宏观金融发展的稳定。我国金融监管机构应当在保证宏观经济平稳运行的基础上,重视对金融稳定与经济增长关联机制的监测,确保我国金融体系安全运行。By means of the financial stability index and the fixed model as well as time varying model,the nonlinear correlation between financial stability and economic growth in China was tested.It was found that short-term economic growth has a strong＂suppressive effect＂on financial stability,but this effect tends to weaken as economic growth slows down;when economic growth is back to the appropriate speed range,the impact on financial stability manifests itself with a＂pulling effect.＂In the future,a moderate speed for economic growth is conducive to enhancing macro-financial stability as long as economic growth does not fluctuate strongly in the short term.In order to secure the operation of the financial system in China,the government should attach great importance to ensuring the smooth running of macroeconomic premises and monitoring the mechanism associated with economic growth and financial stability.

关 键 词：金融稳定指数 经济增长 时变参数模型 

分 类 号：F224.0[经济管理—国民经济]