基于产品使用率的二维延伸性汽车产品保证需求预测研究  

A Two-Dimensional Extended Warranties Service Demand Forecast Based on Usage Rate

作　　者：仝鹏[1] 刘子先[1] 曹立思[1,2] 门峰[3] TONG Peng LIU Zi-xian CAO Li-si MEN Feng(College of Management ＆ Economics, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China China Automotive Technology ＆Research Center, Tianjin 300162 China Tianjin Foreign Studies University, Tianjin 300204, China)

机构地区：[1]天津大学管理与经济学部,天津300072 [2]天津外国语大学,天津300204 [3]中国汽车技术研究中心,天津300162

出　　处：《管理工程学报》2017年第1期169-175,共7页Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71171142);教育部博士点基金资助项目(20100032110032)

摘　　要：在当前我国经济持续发展的环境下,汽车产业正在飞速发展,二维延伸性汽车产品保证研究已经成为产品保证领域研究的热点与国际前沿领域。为了保障二维延伸性汽车产品保证策略设计的合理性,本文基于产品使用率划分汽车消费者人群,并引入实验经济学理论构建二维延伸性汽车产品保证需求预测模型,对二维延伸性汽车产品保证服务进行需求预测分析。研究结果可以为我国汽车制造企业及汽车研究中心等机构制定二维延伸性汽车产品保证策略提供重要理论参考。As China continues to prosper socially and economically, the national automobile industry is developing rapidly and steadily. China has become the world＇s largest car manufacturer and automobile consumption market. With the rapid development of automobile industry, vehicle consumers have a higher demand for warranties service. Meanwhile, the hysteretic nature of automobile extended warranties service policy and consumers＇ increasing demand for two-dimensional extended warranties service have become a prominent contradiction problem. In recent years, two-dimensional extended warranties service has become top issues among international scholars. In order to ensure the rationality of the design strategy of two-dimensional extended warranties service, this paper carried out a study on the demand forecast of two-dimensional extended warranties service based on the usage rate. In this paper, we classify consumers into three groups including low usage rate consumers, medium usage rate consumers and high usage rate consumers, which are based on the usage rate. This paper further analyzes the demand of two-dimensional extended warranties service of the three groups, respectively. Given the constraints of the traditional demand forecast methods, this paper applied the experiments with economic principles to the demand forecast process of two-dimensional extended warranties service. In addition, this study carried out the two-dimensional demand forecast analysis for extended warranty services. The purpose of of this study is to investigate two-dimensional extended warranties service demand forecast, and have a better understanding of research status of two-dimensional extended warranties service demand forecast. First of all, this paper reviews the warranty strategy and demand forecast of automobile industry. This paper also discusses the characteristic of the traditional demand forecast method, and illustrates the necessity of the research on the demand forecast analysis of two-dimensional extended warranties service

关 键 词：产品保证 延伸性产品保证 需求预测 产品使用率 实验经济学 

分 类 号：F270[经济管理—企业管理]