环境规制、劳动力再配置及其宏观含义  

Environmental Regulation,Labor Reallocation and Its Macroeconomic Implications

作　　者：王勇[1] 李雅楠[2] 李建民[3] 

机构地区：[1]环境保护部环境与经济政策研究中心 [2]中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所 [3]南开大学人口与发展研究所

出　　处：《经济评论》2017年第2期33-47,共15页Economic Review

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金项目"工资上涨;要素投入与偏向型技术进步研究"(项目编号:2015M571193)的资助

摘　　要：本文对环境规制引致劳动力再配置的主要路径及其可能产生的社会成本进行了理论梳理,利用中国工业企业数据,通过面板VAR模型估计了环境规制带来的劳动力再配置并分析了其宏观含义。研究结果表明:(1)环境规制引致的劳动力再配置反映为污染部门的就业萎缩和清洁部门的就业扩张,其宏观福利含义表现为潜在的失业风险和社会转换成本。(2)企业进入、退出和在位企业的就业变动是劳动力再配置的主要路径,在环境规制的约束下,企业进入引致的就业创造被显著抑制,在位企业的就业损失明显提升,被规制部门的潜在劳动力需求下降,宏观上存在着因解雇而产生的失业加剧风险。(3)环境规制导致高污染行业再配置劳动力的能力减弱,更多的劳动力再配置将在高、低污染行业间发生,宏观上更容易带来劳动力需求和供给的错配及产生结构性失业。因此,促进劳动力需求与供给的灵活匹配是降低环境规制社会成本,同时推动绿色经济转型所亟需考虑的。In recent years,the increasing environmental regulation intensity of China＇ s industrial sector and its labor reallocation and social cost effects are becoming more apparent.Based on the theory analysis of main paths and such social cost as unemployment incurred by environmental regulation,this paper uses China＇ s Industrial Enterprise Data and panel VAR model to estimate the labor reallocation and its macro welfare effects of environmental regulation.The research results show that： （ 1 ） The labor reallocation caused by environmental regulation is reflected by job contraction in pollution sector and job expansion in cleaning sector, and its macro welfare implications manifested as potential risk of unemployment and social transformation cost; （2）The employment changes of entered, exited and incumbent firms are the main paths to achieve labor reallocation under the constraint of environmental regulation, the job creation of entering plants are significantly suppressed, the job losses of incumbent plants are significantly increased; potential labor demand in regulated sector is decreasing and there is unemployment risk because of laid off; （3） The abilities of reallocating labor in high pollution industries are weakened and more labor reallocation will happen among industries, which will bring higher labor adjustment costs and easier misallocation between labor demand and supply, and then cause structural unemployment. Therefore, promoting flexible matching between the labor demand and supply needs to be considered in reducing social cost of environmental regulation and driving green economic transition.

关 键 词：环境规制 劳动力再配置 就业创造 就业损失 

分 类 号：F272.92[经济管理—企业管理] F425[经济管理—国民经济] X32[环境科学与工程—环境工程]