消费信贷如何影响家庭消费?  

How Does Consumer Credit Affect Household Consumption?

作　　者：李江一[1] 李涵[2] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学经济学院 [2]西南财经大学经济与管理研究院

出　　处：《经济评论》2017年第2期113-126,共14页Economic Review

摘　　要：基于中国家庭金融调查在2011年与2013年获取的微观面板数据,本文采用倾向匹配和固定效应模型相结合的方法考察了信用卡消费信贷对家庭消费的影响。研究发现,持有信用卡可使家庭总消费提高约14%,同时,银行每将信用卡透支额度提高1%,可使持有信用卡家庭的总消费增加约0.071%。以货币量计算,从2010年至2012年,新发行一张信用卡可刺激居民人均消费增加约123.6元,这可解释2010年至2012年居民人均消费增长中的15.7%。进一步的研究发现,持有信用卡对不同消费品种与家庭的影响具有异质性,持有信用卡对耐用品消费的影响大于对食品衣着消费的影响,对低收入、零活期存款、遭受疾病或失业冲击家庭消费的影响更大。这些发现均与流动性约束理论一致,表明信用卡消费信贷可通过缓解流动性约束而促进消费。Based on the panel data from China Household Finance Survey （CHFS） in 2011 and 2013 ,this paper uses propensity score matching and fixed effect model to study the effect of credit card on household consumption. We find that holding credit card can improve household consumption by about 14%.And credit limit increases by 1% will make household consumption increases by 0.071%.The economic implication is that new issued credit card can improve per capita consumption by 123.6 yuan from 2010 to 2012, which accounts for 15.7% of the net increase in consumption from 2010 to 2012.Further studies show that the effect of credit card on consumption is different among different goods and households.The credit card has a larger effect on durables than food and clothing.And the effect is larger for the family who have lower income, zero current deposit, or who suffer from health and unemployment shocks. These findings are consistent with the liquidity constraints theory, that is, credit card can improve consumption through relax liquidity constraints.

关 键 词：消费信贷 信用卡 流动性约束 倾向匹配 

分 类 号：F126.1[经济管理—世界经济]