中国粮食自给率现状及其测算方法改进研究  

On China's Current Situations About Grain Self-sufficient Rate and Improvement of Its Calculating Method

作　　者：尹风雨[1] 龚波[1,2] YIN Feng-Yu GONG Bo(School of Business, Xiangtan University, Xiangtan 411105, China School of Computer Science, Hunan University of Science and Technology, Xiangtan 411201, China)

机构地区：[1]湘潭大学商学院,湖南湘潭411105 [2]湖南科技大学计算机学院,湖南湘潭411201

出　　处：《湖南科技大学学报（社会科学版）》2017年第2期122-127,共6页Journal of Hunan University of Science and Technology(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(12&ZDO52);国家社会科学基金重点项目(11AZD006);国家社会科学基金青年项目(13CJY071)

摘　　要：针对学者们对当前粮食自给率水平持有的不同见解以及现有测算方法的不足,从广义、狭义、分品种、粮油等统计视角对我国粮食自给率进行了全面的测算,并提出了一种改进自给率测算方法——粮食自有播种面积率。该改进方法不仅能从数量上,而且还能从进口品种结构上体现出粮食的自给差异性。经测算,2015年我国的广义粮食自给率为83.46%,狭义粮食自给率为93.63%,粮油自给率为71.18%,其对应的粮食自有播种面积率分别为75.7%、97.9%、72.5%。根据GM(1,1)灰色模型的预测结果,至2020年我国广义粮食自给率将下降至80.9%,广义自有播种面积率会下降为71.7%。该改进方法为研究我国粮食安全提出了一种更合理的自给测算方式。Based on the different viewpoints on current calculation of grain self - sufficient ratio proposed by the scholars and the insufficient measure ways, this paper makes a comprehensive calculation of grain self - sufficient ratio from the statistical perspectives of a general and narrow sense, varieties, grain, and oil. It also puts forward a new calculating method for its grain self-sufficiency rate, i.e. grain own sowing rate. This new calculating way of grain own sowing rate will not only inflect the self-sufficient differences in quantity, but also show it in the structure of imported grain varieties. Through calculation, the grain self-sufficient rate in a general sense is 83.46%, while in a narrow sense it is 93.63% ; the self-sufficient rate of grain and oil is 71.18%. The corresponding own sowing rate is 75.7%, 97.9%, and 72.5% respectively. Through the GM （1,1） grey model prediction, it predicts China＇s grain self-sufficiency rate will fall down to 80.9%, while China＇s own sowing rate will do to 71.7% by the year of 2020. This paper offers a more reasonable explana- tion to grain self - sufficient rate, and it also provides references on China＇s grain security for the researches.

关 键 词：粮食自给率 自有播种面积率 GM(1 1) 粮食安全 

分 类 号：F320[经济管理—产业经济]