居民生活能源消费碳排放驱动因素分解——以天津市为例  

Factor Decomposition of Carbon Emissions from Household Energy Consumption:A Case Study of Tianjin

作　　者：屈金凤[1] 楚春礼[1] 鞠美庭[1] 董芳青 徐盛国 

机构地区：[1]南开大学环境科学与工程学院,天津300071

出　　处：《生态经济》2017年第4期38-42,共5页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目"城镇低碳环保技术集成与综合信息平台构建及示范"(2015BAJ01B00)

摘　　要：气候变化是当前全球面临的重大挑战之一。研究居民生活能源消费碳排放变化趋势以及影响因素,对提出科学的碳减排策略,减缓气候变化具有重要的指导意义。以天津市为研究案例,对其居民生活能源消费产生的CO_2排放量进行计算,并运用LMDI模型对天津市居民生活能源消费产生的CO_2变动量进行因素分解,从能源碳排放强度、能源消费结构、能源消费强度、经济发展、人口等方面对居民生活能源消费碳排放因素进行分解分析,确定导致碳排放量变化的驱动因素。分析结果表明,经济发展、人口效应为正向效应,能源碳排放强度、能源消费结构、能源消费强度总体上为负向效应,其中经济发展因素是天津市居民生活能源消费碳排放的主要拉动因素,而能源消费强度因素是抑制碳排放的主要减量因素。Climate change is one of the major challenges facing the world today. The research on the change trend and the influencing factors of carbon emissions about residential energy consumption has an important guiding significance to put forward the scientific carbon emission reduction strategy to mitigate climate change. This paper takes Tianjin as a case study. Based on the data of the residential energy consumption of Tianjin, the CO2 emissions generated by the energy consumption are calculated. The paper analyzes the factors of carbon emissions about residential energy consumption and examines the influence with LMDI, including energy consumption structure, energy consumption intensity, economic development and population, and then determines the driving factors leading to changes in carbon emission. The results show that economic development and population effect are the positive effect; energy consumption structure and energy consumption intensity are the negative effect. Economic development is the main factor to increase the carbon emission of Tianjin residential living energy consumption, and the energy consumption intensity is the main factor to reduce the carbon emission.

关 键 词：居民能源消费 碳排放 LMDI模型 因素分解 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F206[经济管理—国民经济]