基于面板分位回归方法的我国金融发展对城乡收入差距影响分析  

Financial Impact Analysis for Urban-rural Income Gap in China Based on Panel Quantile Regression

作　　者：马绰欣 田茂再[1,2,3,4] MA Chuo-xin TIAN Mao-zai(Center for Applied Statistics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China School of Statistics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China University of Finance and Economics, Gansu Lanzhou 730020, China School of Statistics and Informatics, Xinjiang University of Finance ＆ Economics, Xinjiang Urumqi 830001, China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学应用统计科学研究中心,北京100872 [2]中国人民大学统计学院,北京100872 [3]兰州财经大学统计学院,甘肃兰州730020 [4]新疆财经大学统计与信息学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830012

出　　处：《数理统计与管理》2017年第2期341-350,共10页Journal of Applied Statistics and Management

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(15JZD015);教育部高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20130004110007);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(15JJD910001);国家自然科学基金(11271368);北京市社会科学基金重大项目(15ZDA17);国家社会科学基金重点项目(13AZD064);中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)项目成果(15XNL008)

摘　　要：在收入差距的不同分位点上,金融发展对其的影响会展现出不一样的特征。由于我国区域金融发展不均,这一作用机制还具有显著的地区差异。本文利用面板分位回归模型和面板数据聚类方法探寻金融发展对贫富分化作用的分位点特征和地区差异。实证表明,我国大部分地区的金融发展加剧城乡收入差距的扩大,并且这一作用机制存在动态变化特征。当城乡收入差距从高分位点变动到低分位点时,金融发展拉大城乡收入差距的作用逐渐减缓,部分省份甚至具有金融发展抑制城乡收入差距扩大的效应。本文的研究结论将为业内人士和政府的相关决策提供参考依据。Financial development has complex dynamic impact on urban-rural income gap,which changes with the quantile of the income gap.Considering the unbalanced financial development in China,the effect of financial development on urban-rural income gap differs among regions.This paper analyses the quantile effects of financial development on urban-rural income gap and their regional differences.The empirical results show that financial development in most of the regions in China has posed a widening effect on the urban-rural income gap with a dynamic effect mechanism.With the changes from high quantiles to lower quantiles,the widening effects of financial development gradually diminish.Some of the provinces even show a negative impact of the financial development on the urban-rural income gap.These results will provide valuable references for insiders＇ and government＇s decision-making.

关 键 词：金融发展 城乡收入差距 面板数据聚类分析 分位回归 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学] O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]