我国房地产市场价格变动决定因素研究——基于局部均衡模型的分析  

Research on the determinants of price changes in China's real estate market——Analysis based on partial equilibrium model

作　　者：赵洋[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学经济学院

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2017年第1期165-168,共4页Price:Theory & Practice

摘　　要：本文在投资者适应性预期等假设的基础之上,基于房地产市场局部均衡,建立了国际资本流入条件下的房地产短期价格变动理论模型。在该理论模型基础上,使用2004年1季度至2015年3季度我国大陆31个省级行政区(含自治区、直辖市)的季度面板数据,运用误差修正模型等计量方法,分别对我国全国及东、中、西部地区房地产短期价格变动影响因素进行了实证研究和比较分析,结果显示,不论我国的东部、中部、西部地区,房价的短期变动均受购房消费者对未来房价的预期和消费者的购买水平的影响,并呈现正向效应。同时,为我国房地产市场实现协调发展和国家宏观调控政策的制定,提供理论依据和参考建议。This paper, based on the hypothesis of the investors＇ adaptive expec- tations, and the local equilibrium of the real estate market, establishes the theo- retical model of short-term real estate price fluctuation under the condition of international capital inflow. Based on this theoretical model, using the quarterly panel data of China, 31 provincial administrative regions （including municipalities autonomous regions and municipality directly under the Central Government） from the 1 quarter of 2004 to the 3 quarter of 2015, and using the error correction model and other measurement methods, respectively, to research empirically and analyze comparatively on short term price change factors of our country and Eastern, Cen- tral, Western real estate ,the result shows that regardless of the Eastern, Cen- tral, Western region of China, short term price change factors of real estate are influenced by the future prices expectation and purchase level of the purchase con- sumers and have a positive effect. At the same time, it provides the theoretical basis and reference suggestions for realizing the coordinated development of the real estate market and the formulation of the national macro-control policies

关 键 词：房地产市场 房地产价格变动 局部均衡模型 面板数据 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济]