政府宣传对现代燃煤电厂公众支持度的影响——以平江燃煤电厂为例  

The Effect of Government Propaganda on Public Support Rate in Modern Coal-fired Power Plant—Take Pingjiang Coal-fired Power Plant for Example

作　　者：聂龑 吕涛[1] 潘丽[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学管理学院,江苏徐州221116

出　　处：《北京理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2017年第1期35-40,共6页Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology：Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目"突发性能源短缺应急响应的组织体系及‘情景-应对’策略研究"(71173218);教育部博士点基金资助项目"基于分类分级供应的中国煤炭物流系统优化模型及政策研究"(20130095110002);教育部人文社科规划项目资助"基于社会-技术系统转型理论的中国电源结构转型机制;模拟与政策研究"(16YJA790037)

摘　　要：近年来,中国发生了多起针对燃煤电厂建设的公众抵制事件,影响了现代燃煤发电项目的正常实施。以"平江燃煤电厂事件"为例,分析公众在政府宣传前后对煤电项目的态度变化,应用SIR传染病模型对公众支持率的变化进行系统仿真,通过计算基尼系数对政府宣传效果进行评价。结果表明:传染病模型可以较好地反映公众支持态度的动态变化过程,政府宣传促进了公众支持态度的确立,政府宣传行为的基尼系数值G=0.375<0.4,虽在合理范围内但仍存在优化空间。根据以上研究结果,从大型火电项目决策模式变革和宣传策略实施两个方面提出了政策建议。In recent years,several plans to build coal-fired power plant lead to public boycott in China,which lead the national thermal power energy projects are hard to be completed on time. Therefore ,taking Pingjiang coal-fired power event as the example, we analyze people＇s changing attitudes towards the government propaganda. Then based on SIR epidemic model, simulation analysis on the public support rate is carded out. Finally, government propaganda is evaluated from the Gini coefficient. The results show that epidemic model can reflect the dynamic change process of public support,and government propaganda acts as a medium to promote this process. The Gini coefficient of government propaganda is G=0.375 〈0.4,which is reasonable,but also has the optimization space. This paper discussed the effect of the government propaganda from a case,and put forward the proposal and the countermeasure from the decision-making mode transformation and the propaganda strategy implementation for the NIMBY project, especially coal-fired power plant.

关 键 词：能源项目 公众支持度 政府宣传 SIR传染病模型 网络基尼系数 

分 类 号：F206[经济管理—国民经济]