云南冰雹灾害气候特征及其变化  

Climatic Characteristics and Changes of Hail Disasters in Yunnan

作　　者：段玮[1] 胡娟[2] 赵宁坤[2] 尹丽云 刘春文 沈鹰[1] 

机构地区：[1]云南省气象科学研究所,云南昆明650034 [2]云南省气象台,云南昆明650034 [3]云南省人工影响天气中心,云南昆明650034

出　　处：《灾害学》2017年第2期90-96,共7页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：云南省科技惠民计划(2014RA002);中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用面上项目(CMAGJ2015M56);国家自然科学基金(41665004;91537212;41205067)

摘　　要：利用云南省1960-2015年125个气象站冰雹日资料和2005-2015年全省GDP、气象灾情数据,结合多种统计方法对冰雹灾害气候特征及其变化开展了研究,得到以下结论:云南全境全年基本上均可出现冰雹事件,但时空差异明显。滇东、滇南、滇西和滇西北是云南的多雹区。滇西北高海拔地区多雹时段为4-10月,其他地区为春季2-4月多雹。云南冰雹事件存在明显的年际和年代际变化特征,并有显著的减少趋势,2001年是变化的突变点。1960年代和1975年至20世纪末存在显著的2-4年振荡周期。20世纪后半期全省基本一致的冰雹事件总体偏多并且年际间宽幅振荡,21世纪后反之。伴随经济发展,云南冰雹灾害损失逐年增加,但灾损与全省GDP的比率逐年降低,防雹效益明显可能是主要影响因素之一。Using hail observed daily data from 125 meteorological stations during 1960 -2015, GDP and me- teorological disaster data of Yunnan Province during 2005 - 2015, Climatic characteristics and changes of hail dis- asters in Yunnan are analyzed with various statistical methods. Results show that, hail events can be found in the whole year in the whole territory of Yunnan. There are obvious different spatial-temporal distributions for hail events in Yunnan. East, South, West and northwest of Yunnan have more hail events than others region. Main hail period of Northwest Yunnan, high altitude region, is in April-October. Main hail period of other areas is in the spring, February-April. Hail event of Yunnan has obvious interannual and interdecadal variations. And there is a signifi- cant reduction trend. 2001 is the mutation point of change. There is a significant 2 -4 years oscillation period in1960s and 1975 - 1999. In 20 Century, the change characteristics of hail events are positive anomaly and wide oscillation. In 21 Century, the characteristics is conversely. With the economic development, the loss of hail disas- ter in Yunnan has increased year by year. But the ratio of the disaster loss and GDP of Yunnan province has de- creased year by year. Weather modification for hail is one of the main influencing factors.

关 键 词：云南 冰雹 灾害损失 气候特征 变化 防雹效益 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]