全球变化背景下极端降水时空格局变化及其影响因素研究进展和展望  

Advances and Prospects of Spatiotemporal Pattern Variation of Extreme Precipitation and its Affecting Factors under the Background of Global Climate Change

作　　者：孔锋[1,2,3] 史培军[2,3,4] 方建[5] 吕丽莉[1] 方佳毅[2,3] 郭建平[6] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局发展研究中心,北京100081 [2]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875 [3]民政部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875 [4]北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京100875 [5]武汉大学资源与环境科学学院,湖北武汉430079 [6]中国气象科学研究院大气成分研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《灾害学》2017年第2期165-174,共10页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目"中国雾-霾及其对暖云降水垂直分布影响的立体观测及建模研究"(41471301);国家自然科学基金重点项目"气溶胶与边界层相互作用及其对近地面大气污染的影响研究"(91544217);国家自然科学基金创新研究群体项目"地表过程模型与模拟"(41621061);中国博士后科学基金面上资助项目"基于时空变化分析的气候变化对洪水灾害影响研究"(2015M582263);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金课题"气候变化对长江流域洪水灾害影响研究"(2042016kf0067)

摘　　要：近年来极端降水事件频发,已引起学术与社会各界的广泛关注。研究不同尺度极端降水时空变化格局及其影响因素,既是理解全球气候变化中极端天气/气候事件的重要内容,也是制定减轻暴雨灾害风险对策的迫切需求。为此,该文从极端降水的定义、阈值界定、诊断方法、时空格局变化和其影响因素研究五个方面进行了综述,梳理和分析了目前对极端降水定义的内涵和外延、阈值界定和诊断统计方法的特点,并从全球-大洲-区域三个尺度对极端降水的时空格局变化研究结果进行了对比分析。在此基础上,从影响极端降水时空格局变化的自然因子和人文因子两方面,重点总结了目前在极端降水时空格局变化影响因素研究方面已经取得的进展,以及需要进一步加强研究的方向。提出从全球变暖对极端降水事件空间变化影响机制定量分析、多尺度极端降水事件空间变化成因对比、城市化对极端降水事件空间变化影响的定量评价,以及利用高精度气候模式对极端降水事件空间变化影响因素进行定量化模拟分析等方面开展深入研究。Recent research have noted a worldwide increase in the occurrence of extreme-precipitation events, which has caused extensive concern of the academic and the social from all walks of life. Research different spatial scale pattern of extreme precipitation and its affecting factors, is not only an understanding of an important part of the extreme weather/climate events under the background of global climate change, but also urgently needs to reduce the urban waterlogging risk countermeasure. Therefore, in this research, the definition, threshold, diagnostic methods, spatial pattern variation and its affecting factors of extreme precipitation are reviewed. Comprehensive combing and analysis are done to the current definition of extreme precipitation threshold and the characteristics of the diagnostic methods. Extreme precipitation spatial pattern variations from the global-continents-regional scale are then comparatively analyzed. Based on these, from the affecting factors of extreme precipitation spatial pattern vari- ation both natural climate indices and anthropogenic economic activity factors two aspects, emphatically summarized the present advances in the affecting factors of extreme precipitation spatial pattern variation research, and further to strengthen the direction of the research. Global warming quantitative influence extreme precipitation spatial pattern variation, the causes of multi-scale contrast in extreme precipitation spatial pattern variation, quantitative evaluation of the impact of urbanization to extreme precipitation spatial pattern variation and high precision model simulation to extreme precipitation spatial pattern variation will be the future research emphasis.

关 键 词：极端降水 影响要素 时空格局 全球变暖 人类活动 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] P333.2[天文地球—水文科学]