土坝震害分类快速预测的模糊概率方法  

Fuzzy Probability Method for Fast Predicting Earthquake Damage Type of Earth Dam

作　　者：饶为胜 杜成斌[1] 江守燕[1] 钱向东[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学工程力学系,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《灾害学》2017年第2期206-209,214,共5页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家科技支撑项目资助(NO.2015BAB07B10)

摘　　要：为了进行土坝震害类别的快速预测,使用模糊概率方法建立震害预测模型。将坝型、坝料、坝基、施工质量、水深比和地震烈度作为影响因子,引入模糊动态权重,建立了土坝震害分类预测模型。模型反映了土坝震害影响因子权重的模糊性和动态性,更加符合实际。采用该模型对历次地震中的30座土坝震害情况进行了分类预测,预测结果与实际震害较为一致,表明该模型具有较高精度,具有实用价值。For the fast method to establish seismic prediction to the kind of earthquake damage to earth dams, damage prediction model. Taking the type, the material, the we use fuzzy probability base condition, construc- tion quality, the water deep ratio and the seismic intensity as influence factors, we built a dividing model to predict earthquake damage of earth dams by introducing fuzzy dynamic weighted value. At the same time, the introduction of fuzzy dynamic weighted value can reflect the fuzzy and dynamic of earth dam better, which is more realistic. Taking this method to predict the earthquake damage of 30-earth dam from previous earthquake, the results show that the method has high accuracy, and has practical value.

关 键 词：土坝 震害预测 模糊概率 模糊权重 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]