区域交通碳排放相关指标测算及影响因素分析  

Index Calculation and Effect Factor Study of Regional Transport Carbon Emission

作　　者：陈亮[1] 何涛[1] 李巧茹[1] 田晓勇[1] 魏玮 

机构地区：[1]河北工业大学土木与交通学院,天津300401 [2]张家口通泰运输集团有限公司,河北张家口075000

出　　处：《北京工业大学学报》2017年第4期631-637,共7页Journal of Beijing University of Technology

基　　金：北京城市交通协同创新中心资助项目;河北省高等学校科学技术研究重点资助项目(ZD 2014078)

摘　　要：为了更好地掌握交通运输行业碳排放相关指标动态变化规律,分析交通碳排放影响因素驱动力,依据IPCC(intergovernmental panel on climate change)清单指南提供的相关数据,对区域交通碳排放相关指标进行测算;建立改进的STIRPAT(stochastic impacts by regression on population affluence and technology)模型,运用最小二乘回归和岭回归法对交通碳排放影响因素进行定量分析.以北京市为例,研究该地区2005—2014年交通碳排放情况,得出区域交通运输业碳排放发展态势及各影响因素对碳排放总量的驱动力影响程度排序,该研究结果可为其他省市交通运输业碳排放研究提供借鉴.To master the law of dynamic changes of the transport sector emissions related indicators and analyze the effect factors of transport carbon emissions,indicators of regional transport carbon emissions were calculated firstly based on the related data of IPCC（Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change） guideline. Then the STIRPAT （Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population Affluence and Technology） Model was modified with the introduction of carbon emission efficiency. Least squares regression and ridge regression method were adopted to analyze the factors of transport carbon emissions. Finally,transport carbon emissions were analyzed by numerical examples of Beijing from 2005 to 2014. The results demonstrate the developing state of regional transport carbon emissions and the sequence of influence degree of different factors. The research provides a reference for the transport carbon emission study of other provinces.

关 键 词：交通 碳排放 改进STIRPAT模型 岭回归 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理] X24[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]