上市公司盈余预告择时披露策略及市场反应研究--基于股票市场波动的视角  

The Study on Timing Strategy of Listed Corporation Earnings Preannouncement Disclosure——Based on the Perspective of Stock Market Volatility

作　　者：徐高彦[1] 曹俊颖 徐汇丰[1] 沈菊琴[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学商学院,211100

出　　处：《会计研究》2017年第2期35-41,共7页Accounting Research

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费项目“基于股票市场波动的上市公司盈余预告披露行为研究”(2015B13214)阶段性成果

摘　　要：盈余预告研究一直是学者们关注的重点领域,其披露规律也是学术界重要谜团之一。本文提出影响盈余预告披露的新机制——股市的波动性,并借此为特有的研究场景来观测管理层择时披露行为。本文以2003-2015年管理层盈余预告披露的上市公司为样本,实证检验上市公司管理层是否会利用股票市场的高频波动来选择盈余预告信息披露的时机及该策略的实施效果。研究发现:公司管理层盈余预告披露决策会隐性观察市场的波动态势及其幅度,基于披露法定的时滞裁量空间,利用短期市场行情波动性选择较优的披露时机。具体体现在管理层倾向选择市场行情上升期披露更多坏消息,在市场行情下降期披露更多好消息;与不使用该策略的公司相比,使用该策略的公司能获得更好市场反应。Earnings preannouncement has been the focus of research till now,but the disclosure strategy is still one of the most important mysteries in this field.This paper aims to put forward a new mechanism affecting the earnings forecast disclosure—the volatility of stock market,by taking the frequent fluctuations in the stock market as a unique research scene. Based on the 2003-2015 listed corporation earnings preannouncement disclosure data,the study empirically examines that whether managers time the disclosure of earnings preacnnouncement according to the stock market volatility,and the market reaction associated with this strategy is further tested. The conclusion is drawn that the market volatility and amplitude have been implicitly intentioned by managers,who intentionally utilize the market short-term volatility to choose the best disclosure time even considering the time lag of statutory disclosure.More specifically,the managers are more likely to disclose negative earnings preannouncement information in the rising short term of the stock market,while to disclose positive earnings preannouncement information in the falling short term of the stock market. Compared with corporations without implementing this strategy,the earning preannouncement disclosure can receive greater market reaction.

关 键 词：管理层盈余预告 择时披露 市场波动 

分 类 号：F275[经济管理—企业管理] F832.51[经济管理—国民经济]