江苏省1960—2014年降水及气温变化特征  

Variations of precipitation and air temperature during 1960—2014 in Jiangsu Province

作　　者：傅帅[1] 陈舒慧[2] 张小泉 徐士琦 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学空间天气研究所,南京210044 [2]南京信息工程大学,南京210044 [3]武义县气象局,浙江武义321200 [4]吉林省气候中心,长春130062

出　　处：《环保科技》2017年第2期26-33,共8页Environmental Protection and Technology

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306073)

摘　　要：采用国家气象信息中心提供的1960-2014年江苏省逐日降水及气温观测资料,对该地区降水和温度的月际、季节及年际变化特征进行讨论;同时,为了反映极端事件发生的特点,还统计了近55年中该省出现的暴雨及极端气温事件。结果表明:强降水、高温主要出现在夏季(7月)。春、秋、冬季降水量呈自南向北减少趋势,而夏季则自南向北增加。该省降水量年际波动较大,变化趋势不明显。就气温而言,平均气温、最高气温、最低气温均呈显著增暖趋势,变暖幅度分别为0.265、0.175、0.04℃/10a。对极端事件的研究发现:该省暴雨量及暴雨次数呈自南向北增加的趋势,年际变化趋势也不明显。极端气温事件中,暖指数呈显著增加趋势,冷指数呈显著减少趋势。暖日、暖夜增加幅度分别为1.2、2.4d/10a,冷日、冷夜减少的幅度分别为1.5、3.2d/10a。Based on the daily observational data of 12 meteorological stations of Jiangsu Province pro-vided by National Meteorological Information Center for the past 55 years, monthly and seasonal vari-ations of precipitation and temperature in Jiangsu were discussed respectively. Method of linear trend fitting was used to get the trend over the study period. Besides, we also analyzed the extreme cases of precipitation and temperature. Main results are shown as follows ： Both heavy precipitation and high temperature mainly occurs in summer （ centering in July） . The amount of precipitation decreases from south to north except summer, indicating that the rainfall in the northern part of Jiangsu is larger than that in the southern part in summer. Though the inter - annual variable precipitation fluctuates, the variation trend is not significant. While for air temperature, including average temperature, max-imum temperature, and minimum temperature, a significant warming trend is observed, with ampli-tudes of 0. 265 and 0. 175, and 0. 04 °C/ 10a respectively. The study on extreme climate events re-veals that, the amount of heavy rain and the frequency of heavy rain in the province increase from south to north, but the inter - annual variation trend is not significant. In extreme temperature events, the warm index （consisting of warm days and warm nights） shows significant increasing trend, but the cold index （ consisting of cold days and cold nights） exhibits significant decreasing trend. Warm days and warm nights increase by 1.2 and 2. 4d/10a respectively, while cold days and cold night reduce by 1 .5 , 3.2d/10a.

关 键 词：江苏省 降水 气温 百分位阈值法 局地响应 

分 类 号：P412[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]