气候变化下中国植被群系建群种的物种多样性损失风险评价  

Risk Assessment of Species Biodiversity for Constructive Species from Climate Change in China

作　　者：石晓丽[1,2] 史文娇[3,4] 

机构地区：[1]河北师范大学资源与环境科学学院,河北石家庄050024 [2]河北省环境演变与生态建设实验室,河北石家庄050024 [3]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室,北京100101 [4]中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京100049

出　　处：《生态经济》2017年第5期150-154,190,共6页Ecological Economy

基　　金：河北省社会科学基金项目"京津冀地区城市扩张对耕地生态系统服务的胁迫效应"(HB16SH034)

摘　　要：评价气候变化下生物多样性的风险,对于维持物种生存、适应气候变化有重要的现实意义。以气候数据和中国植被图为数据源,基于物种分布模型的基本原理对政府间气候变化专门委员会的《排放情景特别报告》B2情景下中国植被群系主要建群种的物种多样性进行了模拟,评估了未来近期、中期和远期中国陆地生态系统主要建群种的物种多样性损失风险。结果表明:B2情景下,气候变化会给中国主要建群种带来物种多样性损失风险,其风险范围和程度随增温幅度增大而增加。到21世纪远期,三成左右的中国陆地生态系统的主要建群种会面临物种多样性损失风险。青藏区可能成为最脆弱的地区,降低的生物多样性将会使得高海拔生态系统及其生境在未来气候变化下更加脆弱。To assess the biodiversity risk under climate change is helpful to maintain the species survival and adapt to the climate change. Based on the climate data and vegetation map of China, EUROMOVE model was employed to simulate the species richness under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios B2 scenario from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. According to the reduction of species richness, we then evaluated the species loss risk of the constructive species from climate change during the near-term, mid-term and long-term. Results showed that risk areas will expand with climate warming. The risk regions will account for 31.5% of China in the long-term. The Qinghai-Tibet Region is likely to be the most vulnerable, biodiversity loss may lead high elevation ecosystems and their inhabitants to be more vulnerable under future climate change.

关 键 词：风险 物种多样性 EUROMOVE模型 中国 气候变化 

分 类 号：X176[环境科学与工程—环境科学]