基于贝叶斯推理的ANFIS电网发展水平评估  

Evaluation of Power Network Developmental Level Based on ANFIS Improved by Bayesian Inference

作　　者：牛东晓[1] 刘卫东[2] 黄雅莉[1] 孙可[2] 刘鸿飞[1] 吴晗[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206 [2]国网浙江省电力公司经济技术研究院,浙江杭州310000

出　　处：《电网与清洁能源》2017年第3期8-16,共9页Power System and Clean Energy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71471059)~~

摘　　要：电网发展水平评估是电网规划和建设的可靠前提和依据。首先,建立全面合理的电网发展水平评估指标体系;再根据贝叶斯推理的ANFIS建立电网评估模型;最后,利用实际样本进行模型训练和测试。算例结果显示模型的有效性。The evaluation of the development level of power grids is the reliable premise and basis for the power grid planning and construction. In this paper, first of all, we establish a comprehensive and reasonable index system to evaluate the development level of power grids; and then build the evaluation model through ANFIS based on Bayesian inference. Finally, historical data of a certain power grid in Zhejiang Province is selected to train and test the model. The numerical example show the effectiveness of the model proposed.

关 键 词：电网评估 贝叶斯推理 自适应神经模糊推理系统 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]