生物质能源替代化石能源的成本有效性拓展模型--基于时间价值视角  

Construction of Cost-effectiveness Model of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation by Replacing Fossil Fuels with Bioenergy——From the Perspective of Time-value

作　　者：耿爱欣 杨红强[1,3,2] GENG Ai - xin YANG Hang- qiang(College of Economics and Management, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China Center for Changjiang River Delta＇s Socioeconomic Development, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China Research Center for Economics and Trade in Forest Products, SFA, Nanjing 210037, China)

机构地区：[1]南京林业大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210037 [2]国家林业局林产品经济贸易研究中心,江苏南京210037 [3]南京大学长江三角洲经济社会发展研究中心,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《资源开发与市场》2017年第5期533-539,共7页Resource Development & Market

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目“应对气候变化的中国林业国家碳库构建与预警机制研究”(编号:14AJY014);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“IPCC气候框架下中国林产品国际贸易的碳流动问题研究”(编号:13YJAZH114);江苏省高校“青蓝工程”中青年学术带头人项目(编号:2012-12#)

摘　　要：生物质能源替代化石能源是缓解温室效应的有效途径。基于生命周期思想梳理能源系统替代使用减排效益与成本核算的边界;根据全球变暖与时间跨度关联理论归纳并改进评估方法,将不同阶段的排放转化为与折现成本值在同一时间基础上的等效值,对传统方法赋予时间价值;对能源排放成本支出的数理结构进行逻辑梳理,结合不同情景进行拓展模型构建。拓展模型兼顾生态与经济效益在时间上的一致性与可比性,更加科学地为生物质能源替代减排成本有效性评估提供理论依据。The use of bioenergy was considered an essential alternative to fossil fuel consumption, thereby reducing greenhouse gas （GHG） emis- sions. This paper summarized and improved the accounting method from the perspective of time - value, establishing the cost - effectiveness model, which evaluated the cost - effectiveness of emission reductions. For this purpose, first of all, this paper combed the system boundary of greenhouse gas emissions and cost expenditures based on the life cycle assessment method. Secondly, according to the theories on the global worming potential and time - value, this paper summaried and improved the accounting model, translated the emissions occurring over time to an equivalent present emission which was similar to the time value of money, setting time value upon conventional cost - effectiveness calculations. Finally, this paper analyzed the mathematical structure of greenhouse gas emissions and cost expenditures according to the logical combing, combining operation mechanism of the cost - effectiveness in different scenarios to establish the cost - effectiveness model. Compared to conventional life cycle assessment and cost - effective- ness approaches, the assessment of ecological benefits and economic benefits had more similarities and comparability with considering the time - val- ue, which were able to better offer more scientific theoretical support for the evaluation of cost effectiveness.

关 键 词：生物质能源 替代减排 成本有效性 时间价值 拓展模型 

分 类 号：TK6[动力工程及工程热物理—生物能] X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学]