定向增发中的会计业绩效应与财务分析师信息预示  

The Increment Effect on EPS of Private Placement and the Predicative Ability of Financial Analysts

作　　者：储一昀[1] 仓勇涛[2] 李常安[3] 

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学会计学院/会计与财务研究院,200433 [2]上海外国语大学国际金融贸易学院,200083 [3]安徽财经大学会计学院,233030

出　　处：《会计研究》2017年第3期39-45,共7页Accounting Research

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(13JJD630009);安徽省高校省级自然科学项目(KJ2011Z006;KJ2013Z002);上海外国语大学科研创新团队基金(QJTD14CYT01)的资助

摘　　要：本文以2007-2013年907家定向增发公司为研究样本,考察了定向增发对资源使用效益衡量指标净资产收益率(ROE)与用之于市场决策转化指标每股收益(EPS)之间逻辑关系的影响,以及考察了定向增发环境下财务分析师对增发公司业绩变化的预示能力。研究发现,定向增发存在"EPS业绩效应",即在ROE下降情形下,随着定向增发规模的增大,公司EPS会越来越高。这为解释定向增发存在短期正向宣告效应长期回报不佳现象提供了新思路。尽管定向增发通常意味着信息不对称程度更高,但我们研究发现财务分析师盈余预测调整与公司EPS变化基本一致,并且其预测向上调整预示了定向增发公司有一个更好的未来会计业绩,这表明财务分析师预测活动可作为公司管理层信息披露的替代。In this paper,we use 907 private placement corporations from 2007 to 2013 as research sample,to investigate the impact that private placement has on the relation between ROE and EPS,and to investigate the predicative ability of analysts on accounting performance change after private placement.The paper finds that private placement has an EPS increment effect,which means that even under the condition ROE is decreasing,the firms’EPS will be much higher with the amount of private placement increasing.This evidence provides a new clue to explain the phenomenon that private placement has positive announcement effect in short term and negative long-term returns.Even though private placement usually means higher information asymmetry,whereas our evidences show that analysts’earnings forecast revision is consistent with the change of firms’EPS,and upward revision suggests a better firms’future accounting performance of those firms.These findings suggest that analysts’earnings forecast can substitute for the management information disclosure.

关 键 词：定向增发 EPS业绩效应 分析师盈余预测调整 

分 类 号：F275[经济管理—企业管理] F832.51[经济管理—国民经济]