基于AHP-Monte Carlo的高速公路边坡风险等级界定及应用  

Level Definition of Risk Rating and Applications in Expressway Side Slope by AHP-Monte Carlo

作　　者：黄聪[1] 杨仕教[1] 罗辉[2] 

机构地区：[1]南华大学核资源工程学院,湖南衡阳421001 [2]长沙理工大学交通运输工程学院,湖南长沙410076

出　　处：《南华大学学报（自然科学版）》2017年第1期107-112,共6页Journal of University of South China：Science and Technology

摘　　要：为快速识别边坡施工过程中的风险,构建基于层次分析法(AHP)—蒙特卡洛(Monte Carlo)的安全总体风险评估体系和界定边坡风险等级区间.根据湘西某高速公路边坡施工过程中引起边坡失稳的主要因素,进行了风险源识别,采用AHP方法确定风险源权重,建立边坡施工安全评估模型.该公路63处边坡风险特征参数体现了边坡风险分值R的分布规律.运用Monte Carlo模拟边坡安全评估分数F,建立了该公路的边坡风险等级界定区间,并以工程实例数据对评估结果进行了验证.In order to identify the risk in slope construction process quickly, an overall risk evaluation system based on the hierarchy analysis process （AHP） -Monte Carlo is established and slope risk level intervalsare defined.According to the major factors, which cause the slope instability during the construction process of an expressway in Xiangxi （an area in Hunan province） , a risk source identification is carried out, the weight of risk source is determined by means of AHP and a slope construction safety evaluation model is built. Through investing slope risk feature parameters in 63 positions of the highway, statistics for the slope risk scores R are gathered and their distribution is analyzed, furthermore, the slope safety evaluation scores F are simulated using Monte Carlo and then the slope risk level determining intervals of the highway are established. And the evaluation results are verificated by engineering example data.

关 键 词：高速公路边坡 层次分析法 蒙特卡洛 风险评估体系 风险等级界定 

分 类 号：U412.36[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]