基于前向—后向计划的交通政策推衍  

Transport Policy Analysis Based on the Forward and Backward Process

作　　者：李慧[1] 张炳江[1] 仝哲[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京信息科技大学理学院,北京100192

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2017年第4期165-176,共12页Operations Research and Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(60972115);北京市教委科研计划项目(SM201310772004)

摘　　要：随着城市人口的增多和汽车的增加,城市交通问题日益突出,导致了一系列交通政策的出台。为了制定科学合理的交通政策,基于前向—后向计划的过程,从数理科学的角度出发,对交通政策的制定进行了推衍。文中引入区间数的概念表达了在交通政策制定的推衍过程中所涉及到的各种交通要素,能够很好地获得更为有效的模糊信息,体现了评价中偏差的摄动程度。最后,通过具体的案例详细地说明了依据前向—后向计划进行交通政策制定的推衍过程。With the increase of urban population and automobiles, traffic problems occur frequently in today＇ s society. A series of traffic problems lead to a transport policy. In order to formulate a scientific and reasonable policy, we can analyze transport policy-making based on the forward and backward process from the view of mathematical science. On all of transport factors expressed in form of interval number, we obtain fuzzy informa- tion effectively to evaluate the degree of deviation well. Ultimately using a concrete case, we describe the process of transport policy-making based on the forward and backward process in detail.

关 键 词：模糊决策 区间数 层次分析法 前向-后向计划 交通政策 

分 类 号：O22[理学—运筹学与控制论]