城市供水量季节规律分析及预测研究  

Seasonal variation analysis and prediction of urban water supply quantity

作　　者：谭浩强[1,2] 何文杰[1,2,3] 黄廷林[2] 韩宏大[1,2] 施银焕[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津市自来水集团有限公司,天津300040 [2]西安建筑科技大学环境与市政工程学院,陕西西安710055 [3]天津膜天膜科技股份有限公司,天津300042

出　　处：《供水技术》2017年第2期7-10,共4页Water Technology

基　　金：国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(2014ZX07406-003)

摘　　要：城市月供水量规律分析和预测是供水企业调度管理工作的重要组成部分。以天津市为例,考虑到供水量的季节规律变化,提出了基于季节指数的水量预测模型,并进行了预测结果准确性的验证。结果表明,预测值和真实值相对误差的绝对值在0.559%~5.803%之间,能较好地满足月供水量预测要求。Variation analysis and prediction of urban water supply quantity monthly is an important part of dispatching and management for water supply enterprise. In view of the seasonal variation of urban water supply quantity in Tianjin, the water supply quantity prediction model based on seasonal index was set up and the prediction accuracy was tested. The results showed that the absolute value of relative error between predictive values and actual values was 0. 559% to 5. 803% , and could meet the requirement of monthly water prediction.

关 键 词：水量预测 水源 季节指数 供水 

分 类 号：TU991.0[建筑科学—市政工程]